Iran and Turkey's gas trade depends on future exploration in the Black Sea
TEHRAN, Iran, Sep.19
The future of Iran and Turkey's oil and gas trade depends on various factors and it's not predictable but in recent years Turkey has imported LNG from the US due to its low price that would substitute traditional imports from Iran and Russia, said an energy expert.
"It is unlikely that with the current amount of discovered gas Turkey would become independent from importing gas it would all depend on future explorations," said Zana Ahmadi, Trend reports citing ILNA.
"Turkey's LNG(Liquefied Natural Gas) imports via pipeline has increased in the current year that was due to global surplus production and reduced cargo price, it is predicted that the volume of the country's imported gas would reduce in 2020 while LNG import would increase from 12 billion cubic meters in 2019 to 18 billion cubic meters in 2020," he said.
"In regards to the possibility of Turkey becoming an energy hub in the region, we should first wait to see the amount of gas in the newly discovered field in the coming years and then compare it to other gas producing countries such as Iran, Russia, and Qatar," he said.
"Turkey's gas reserve in Tuna -1 is 320 billion cubic meters while the gas reserves in Iran is about 32 trillion cubic meters. Although trade and price would affect exports of LNG via pipeline but discovery of this field would produce considering the amount of gas for Turkey however it would not affect the region significantly," he said.
"Turkey's demand for gas has been reduced from 52 billion cubic meters in 2017 to 44 billion cubic meters in 2019, the country is extremely dependent on importing gas from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan via pipeline and has imported 33 billion cubic meters gas in 2019," he said.
"Although the country needs to import gas from Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan via pipeline it also seeks to have diversity and import LNG. Algeria, Nigeria, and Qatar have long term contracts to export LNG to Turkey while the US has joined the list in the past two years," he said.
"Considering the volume of discovered gas in Turkey, it is unlikely that the case would affect energy export and production," he said.
"Although it seems that exploring the field would reduce the costs of import between $200 million to $1.5 billion per year. The outlook would reduce the volume of gas import and increase Turkey's bargaining with other gas producing countries," he added.
"If Turkey continues to explore and discover new gas fields in the future, it would reduce costs and reliance on import and the country could supply its domestic consumption," he said.