World oil demand will stabilize in five years - IHS CERA
Azerbaijan, Baku, Sept.9. / Trend A.Badalova /
In 2009, world oil demand will rise for the first time since 2007 and by 2012 it will return to the level observed before the onset of the recession, the American Consulting Association IHS CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) reported.
According to the IHS CERA forecasts, world oil demand will rise to 900, 000 barrels per day in 2010 and in 2012 return to the level of 2007 - to 86.5 million barrels per day.
In 2009, world oil demand dropped to 83.8 million barrels per day, which is 2.8 million barrels less than in 2007, when demand was at its highest level - 6.5 million barrels per day.
The last time such a significant drop in world oil demand was observed was in the early 1980's. The recovery in oil demand took 9 years.
This recovery period for demand will be relatively short - five years, the same source said.
According to Jim Burkhard, the Managing Director of Global Oil Services at CERA, the main difference between the previous and the current recovery in demand is the increase in oil demand in the developing countries and the fewer possibilities of fuel substitution.
According to the IHS CERA forecasts, world oil demand will increase from 83.8 million barrels per day in 2009 to 89.1 million in 2014. 83 percent (4.4 million barrels per day) of the total demand will be to countries which are not part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. 1.6 million barrels of the total oil demand will go to China and only 900, 000 barrels per day to the OECD countries.
"Despite the fact that the dynamics of oil demand appear to be completely defined, further events may affect its trajectory," Burkhard said.
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