Western analysts' forecasts on world oil prices for 2010-2011

Azerbaijan, Baku, May 8 / Trend A.Badalova /

Oil prices show a downward trend on the world markets for the third consecutive day. The fall of quotations mainly linked with concerns that have arisen regarding the further restoration of the European economy on the backdrop of the budget problems in Greece. In addition, the U.S Energy Ministry's most recent report , under which commercial oil reserves in the country has increased significantly - by 2.8 million barrels, also influenced the dynamics of prices.

June futures for the North Sea crude oil Brent on London Stock Exchange decreased by $3.08 May 6 to $79.53 per barrel. June futures for U.S. crude oil WTI on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.86 to $77.11 per barrel.

There were fears a week ago, when prices were higher than $ 85 per barrel that prices may soon again rise significantly, topping a mark of $100 per barrel.  Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ahmad Al-Abdullah said if this happens, OPEC can increase its production volumes, to avoid the rising oil prices' negative impact on the world economy. Today, OPEC set a quota for oil production at 24.84 million barrels per day.

Despite the recent significant drop in quotations, analysts predict a fairly high level of oil prices on the results of 2010.

Analysts at the U.S. bank Goldman Sachs have raised the forecasts on the world oil prices for 2010 and 2011 in May. Based on the new forecasts, the average price of WTI will amount to $108 pet barrel in 2010 compared to $96 earlier forecasted. In 2011, analysts predict a price for this sort of oil at $110 per barrel compared to $105 per barrel, projected earlier. The bank's analysts regard as a real reaching oil prices over the next two years to the mark of $150-$200 per barrel.

Analysts one of the world's largest banks - the American JP Morgan - also increased the forecast on price for WTI from $78.25 dollars per barrel to $83.5 in 2010. In the fourth quarter, the price will rise to $90 per barrel. In 2011, the average price for WTI is projected to reach $90 per barrel. Analysts expect price growth to $95 per barrel by late 2010. The bank expects the average price for Brent to reach $83.5 and $ 90 per barrel in 2010 and 2011, respectively.

Analysts at the U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley forecast the price of WTI to amount to $ 95 per barrel in late 2010 and to grow to $ 100 a barrel in 2011, and up to $ 105 per barrel - in 2012. The bank's analysts expect the positive macroeconomic data in the global economy, which will have a positive impact on growth in oil prices.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected the average price on WTI in 2010 at slightly below $81 per barrel. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the price on the oil will hit $85 per barrel, the administration reported.

Analysts at one of Britain's leading consulting firms for Economic Research Capital Economics predict the price of Brent at $ 70 per barrel in the second quarter, $ 65 - in the third quarter and $ 60 per barrel - in the fourth quarter of 2010. The company's analysts expect the price of this sort oil to remain at $60 per barrel in 2011.

Projections on World Oil Prices for 2010-2011($ per barrel)



Goldman Sachs

108 (W)

110 (W)

JP Morgan

83,5 (W, B)

90 (IV quarter) (W)

90 (W, B)

95 (IV quarter) (W)

Morgan Stanley

95 (end of the year) (W)

100 (W)


<81 (W)

85 (IV quarter) (W)

Capital Economics

70 (II quarter) (B)

65 (II quarter) (B)

60 (IV quarter) (B)

60 (B)


B - Brent

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