Expert: Iran probably counters oil sanctions on black market
Azerbaijan, Baku, April 21 / Trend D.Khatinoglu/
Iran has said that the U.S. and the EU sanctions against the country's oil sector will not affect its oil incomes. Hooman Peimani, the head of the energy security department at the institute for energy studies of Singapore National University in an interview with Trend said that Iran will probably be able to sell a portion of its oil on the black market. According to him, the unstable situation in Libya, Yemen and Iraq and some other Arab countries, has made removing Iran from international markets impossible. So, Asian customers of Iranian oil will import a significant percentage of their needed oil from Iran, particularly when Iran offers special discounts and incentives to its oil customers.
Mohsen Qamsari, the director of the National Iranian Oil Company for international affairs, told the Mehr news agency on Saturday that Iran has extended deals with all Asian and African customers for selling oil in 2012.
Japan has slashed its crude purchases from Iran by 77 percent in April. Japanese buyers will load just 75,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from Iran in April, down 77 percent, Reuters reported
China, Japan and South Korea have together cut imports from Iran by 22 percent. Turkey cut Iranian oil imports by 10 percent. South Africa, the biggest Iranian oil customer, which bought 4 percent of Iran's total exported oil in 2011, stopped imports in April.
Taiwan, which accounted for importing 1 percent of Iranian oil, has announced that it is after replacing Iran with another country.
The EU, which imported 18 percent of Iran's export-bound oil, will stop the importations on July 1.
Acording to Mr. Peimani, Iran can sell oil on the black market in any situation, even amid a full-fledged sanction, as other countries do the same.
"Currently, the world needs high volumes of oil and the need will even go higher. So, Iran's crude oil is still welcomed in international markets. Therefore, Iran will be able to export a major portion of its crude output."
China has reiterated that it is opposing sanctions against Iran and will not abide by teh sanctions. If the country anounces that it has reduced oil imports from Iran, it will, in fact, compensate through importing via intermidate agents.
Iran will probably face maximum 40 percent cut in oil imports as a result of the sanctions. Moreover, embargoes on Iran can be construed as a prelude to a militray conflict with the country. Such political-security tensions will lead to higher oil prices, which will, in turn, increase Iran's oil revenues and will compensate for the fall in teh volume of oil exports.
Although the U.S. Energy Information Administartion has reported that Iran's 2010 oil incomes amounted to $74 billion, Iran says it earned $60 billion in oil exports.