Kazakhstan, Astana, April 27 /Trend D.Mukhtarov/
The main importers of oil in the next 10 years will be Asian countries, according to head of energy research in Russia and the Caspian Sea HIS CERA Matthew J. Seygers.
"The picture of the future demand for oil varies greatly in different regions of the world. Demand in Europe reached its peak a few years ago and will decline in the long run because of a sufficiently low GDP growth and a significant increase in energy efficiency and alternative energy sources. Meanwhile, the demand for energy in Asia will increase," Seygers said at the conference 'Energy in Russia and the Caspian Sea' in Astana.
Seygers believes that the main consumers in the coming decades will be rapidly developing China and India. There will be an intense competition for this vast Asian market.
In addition Seygers suggests not dismissing the cyclical oil prices and the possibility of quite a sharp decline from the current record levels of $120 per barrel to $80 per barrel.
"High oil prices lead to a reduction in demand and the emergence of alternative providers and breakthrough technologies will sooner or later lead to serious long term changes in demand patterns. In this sense the increasing dependence of government budgets of many oil-producing countries from the high prices is risky," Seygers said.
Seygers added that with such a development in the situation, a question about what would be the optimal profile of oil production in Kazakhstan will inevitably intensify production in the coming years, or maintain a flat production profile for the extension of the general life of the fields. The answer, according to Seygersa is inevitably, connected with the overall priorities of fiscal and social policy in Kazakhstan.