JP Morgan lowers forecasts for global oil products demand growth
Baku, Azerbaijan, July 23
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global oil products demand growth for 2018 is expected to stand at 1.6 million barrels per day and that for 2019 at around 1.1 million barrels per day, the US JP Morgan Bank said in its report obtained by Trend.
Previously, JP Morgan forecasted this figure to stand at 1.7 million barrels per day in 2018.
"The revision in global oil demand is in line with downward revisions in GDP growth forecast for economies across Europe, Latin America and Middle East since our last update and the impact of higher oil prices in the first half of 2018," said the report.
JP Morgan experts believe that any escalation of trade war between China and the US could impact demand growth even further.
"We forecast total global liquids supply to increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2018 and by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2019. Total non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 2.2 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2018 and 1.7 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2019 driven very strongly by US shale but also Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and Brazil," said the report.
As for the process, JP Morgan estimates 2018 at $69.3 per barrel and US light crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $62.2 per barrel in 2018.
The 2019 estimates for Brent is $63 per barrel and WTI is $58.25 per barrel.
"At the same time, we maintain risk bias position given the rise in tensions in the Middle East driven partly by the US policies especially in Iran and the risk to the straits of Hormuz if Iran made an attempt to block it in retaliation," said the report.
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