Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.26
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Looking forward, global coal demand is expected to grow slightly throughout the outlook period from 2015–2040, at an average growth rate of 0.2 percent per annum, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook 2018 report.
“This translates into demand growth of around 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d). In relative terms, the share of coal in primary energy demand is expected to decline from above 28 percent in 2015, to less than 27 percent in 2020, and then 22 percent in 2040, as many countries shift away from coal,” said the report.
In terms of regions, OPEC says the growth is projected only for developing countries, which is expected to see a demand increase of almost 11 mboe/d over the forecast period. “At the same time, however, due to stronger demand growth for other fuels, the share of coal in the energy mix for developing countries is projected to decline from almost 38 percent in 2015 to 28 percent in 2040.”
The cartel believes that in Europe, stricter rules at the EU level and higher carbon prices are set to push more coal plants into unprofitability.
“Initiatives at the country level, for example, the UK, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Portugal and Italy, are pointing to a phase-out of coal-fired plants in the next 10–15 years,” said the report.
Some other countries, such as Poland are still expected to remain heavily reliant on coal, although no major expansion is expected in the long-term, according to OPEC.
“Some EU countries, such as Germany and Spain, prevented planned closures of some coal power plants in order to keep them as back-up capacity. Furthermore, the reform of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) will reduce the number of allowances from 2019. Consequently, OECD Europe’s coal demand is likely to decrease by almost 2.5 mboe/d between 2015 and 2040.”
Coal’s share in this region’s energy mix is estimated to be below 9.5 percent in 2040, down from almost 16 percent in 2015, said the report.
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