BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov.13
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Oil supply from producers outside of the OPEC+ pact, including Mexico, eased by 170 kb/d in October, to 47 mb/d, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“A rebound in North Sea output after seasonal maintenance during August and September, further gains in Canada and the US shale patch were offset by extensive losses in the Gulf of Mexico. Output was down 3.3 mb/d compared with end-2019 levels, with the US accounting for just over 2 mb/d,” reads the IEA report.
For 2020 as a whole, output from outside OPEC+ is set to fall by 1.3 mb/d on average, or roughly half the total non-OPEC decline. Total non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by only 480 kb/d in 2021 as OPEC+ output cuts remain in place and steep spending cuts take their toll elsewhere.
In October, OPEC+ compliance was a robust 103 percent. The 10 OPEC members taking part in cuts turned in a compliance rate of 106 percent, while non-OPEC members delivered a rate of 97 percent. A hefty increase from Iraq offset a decrease from the UAE leaving October crude oil output at 34.2 mb/d, broadly steady on the September level.
Compliance with the agreed targets has averaged 96% for the May-October period and countries that have over-produced have agreed to compensate by pumping less. Our calculations show that non-compliant producers have exceeded their targets by more than 100 mb. The largest excess volumes are in the UAE (28 mb), Russia (19 mb) and Iraq (18 mb),” reads the report.
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