BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.21
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Oil is currently above $70/bbl, but the expectation is that the price is more likely to be high $60/bbl by end 2021, as supply increases and demand eases, Spencer Welch, director of the oil markets and downstream team in the London-based IHS Markit told Trend.
He pointed out that the OPEC+ alliance is gradually returning the restricted oil to the market, by an extra 400,000 b/d every month, but there is still around 6 million b/d being with-held from the market, so this return process will take another year.
“Oil demand is still below end 2019 level by around 3 percent, demand is recovering as vaccinations increase but COVID outbreaks and normal seasonal changes means this recovery is not linear. We expect oil demand to return to 2019 levels in late 2022,” said the expert.
He expects oil prices to average $65-70/bbl in 2022, “if anything a little below the price we have had in 2H21 so far.”
UK-based Capital Economics research and consulting company believes that oil prices are expected to fall due to rising global oil supply, rather than dwindling demand.
The prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil will see a downward trend up until the end of 2022, according to Capital Economics.
The company forecasts Brent prices to stand at $73 per barrel in Q3 2021, before falling to $70 per barrel in the last quarter of the year. The next year will start with $68 per barrel in Q1 2022, then gradually dropping to $68 per barrel in Q2, $65 per barrel in Q3 and $60 per barrel in Q4.
As for WTI, the prices will rise from the current $70 per barrel to $73 per barrel in Q3 2021 and $68 per barrel in Q4 2021. WTI prices will continue downward trend in 2022 with $66 per barrel in Q1, $63 per barrel in Q2, $61 per barrel in Q3 and $58 per barrel in Q4.
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