BAKU, Azerbaijan, Sept.29
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Cumulative investment requirements in the oil sector amount to $11.8 trillion in 2021–2045, Trend reports with reference to OPEC’s World Oil Outlook.
Of this, 80 percent or $9.2 trillion, is directed towards the upstream, the bulk of which is in North America, as US tight oil, in particular, drives medium-term non-OPEC supply growth, said the cartel.
“Downstream and midstream investment needs, in order to expand and maintain the associated refinery, storage and pipeline systems required to bring oil to market, necessitate another $1.5 and $1.1 trillion, respectively,” reads the report.
The relative share of both OPEC and the rest of the world rise over the long-term, with the former’s investment requirements increasing from around a 10 percent share in 2021 to nearly 20 percent by 2045, as OPEC’s market share is set to increase from 33 percent to 39 percent over the time horizon of this Outlook. The relative share of the rest of the world’s upstream investment requirements, meanwhile, rises from 25 percent to 40 percent in this period. In sum, over 25 years, cumulative upstream investment requirements are estimated to be $9.2 trillion.
In the downstream sector, total required investments are estimated at $1.5 trillion in the 2021– 2045 period. These include investments of nearly $450 billion in new refinery projects and expansions of existing units located mostly in developing countries, including those in the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Africa and Latin America. Furthermore, required investments for continuous maintenance and replacement are estimated at around $1 trillion, spread across all regions.
Required investments in the midstream sector are estimated at around $1.1 billion in the same time horizon and are attributed to the expansion of the infrastructure for refining, storage and pipeline systems, predominantly in developing regions, but also in large oil exporting regions (e.g. the US & Canada and the Russia & Caspian). Thus globally, oil-related investment needs in the long-term are estimated at $11.8 trillion.
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