BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 5. A complete cut of Russian gas flows cannot be excluded, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in its latest outlook, Trend reports.
“In our forecast, Russian pipeline supplies to the European Union decline by over 55% by 2025 compared to their 2021 levels, with Russia meeting 20 percent of EU gas demand. This is based on the gradual expiry of Gazprom’s long-term supply contracts and the assumption that the sanctions imposed by Russia will restrict the use of the YAMAL–Europe pipeline and prevent gas deliveries to Gazprom Germania’s daughter companies over the medium term. Available measures could accelerate the phase-out of Russian gas, putting it on track to drop to zero by 2027. The current forecast is subject to unusually large uncertainty due to Russia’s unpredictable behavior,” says the agency.
The report reveals that European Union’s commitment in the Versailles Declaration to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports “as soon as possible” is set to transform Europe’s energy and gas markets in the years to come, with implications for global trade and market dynamics.
“EU imports of Russian pipeline gas are set to decline by over 45% in 2022 to below 80 bcm, while Russian LNG inflows are expected to be sustained at above last year’s level. The share of Russian gas in EU gas demand is expected to drop to just 25 percent in 2022 – its lowest level in more than two decades,” says the IEA.
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