BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 8. In a recent analysis focused on climate change, it has been revealed that current net zero commitments fall short in preventing global warming from exceeding 1.5°C.
The study, presented by Equinor under two scenarios named Walls and Bridges, highlights the urgency of further action to curb emissions.
Under the Walls scenario, the carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is projected to be depleted by 2033, emphasizing the need for immediate and substantial efforts. However, in the Bridges scenario, existing commitments are not only met but additional measures are undertaken, allowing emissions to stay within the 1.5°C carbon budget with the assistance of carbon removal technologies.
The decarbonization of the power and industry sectors will rely heavily on carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). In the Walls scenario, CCUS deployment for both coal and gas accelerates after 2030, but it is in the Bridges scenario where significant growth in CCUS is observed even prior to 2030. Additionally, after 2030, carbon removal technologies and practices make extensive contributions towards achieving decarbonization targets.
Electrification and the utilization of hydrogen and its derivatives are identified as crucial elements in decarbonizing the transportation sector. In both scenarios, electric vehicles gradually replace internal combustion engines in road transport, albeit to varying degrees. However, the Bridges scenario surpasses Walls by further decarbonizing marine and air transport through increased utilization of hydrogen and its derivatives.
Renewable energy sources, specifically wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), exhibit substantial growth compared to 2020 levels. In the Walls scenario, wind capacity is estimated to be five times greater, while solar PV capacity is expected to be nine times greater by 2050 compared to the present. However, the Bridges scenario outperforms Walls, with wind capacity projected to be eight times greater and solar PV capacity a remarkable thirteen times greater by 2050.
The findings of this analysis underscore the pressing need for enhanced net zero commitments and immediate action to mitigate climate change. Time is of the essence, and substantial efforts are required to ensure a sustainable and livable future for all.
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