BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 20. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies has adjusted its Brent crude price outlook, maintaining expectations at $85.2 per barrel for 2024 and slightly revising downward to $78.5 per barrel for 2025, compared to previous forecasts of $84.5 per barrel and $79.0 per barrel respectively, Trend reports.
In May, Brent crude prices experienced a significant month-on-month decline of 9 percent to $82 per barrel, following April's peak above $90 per barrel. This downturn was attributed to stockbuilds prompting investors to liquidate long positions, despite geopolitical risks not significantly impacting market balances. The May price also fell short of the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies' earlier projection of $84.2 per barrel.
Looking ahead, with recent announcements from OPEC+ and expectations of stock draws towards the year-end, the Institute anticipates Brent crude prices to rebound from May's levels. It forecasts an average of $86.5 per barrel in the second half of 2024, gradually moderating to a range of $75-80 per barrel in 2025.
The Brent Prospect remains slightly lower than the reference case, projecting $83.4 per barrel for 2024 with continued downward pressure extending into the first quarter of 2025 at -$2.8 per barrel. However, a recovery to $80.8 per barrel in 2025 is anticipated due to tightening supply-demand dynamics.
Overall, the Institute's forecasts support expectations of Brent crude prices remaining within the $75-85 per barrel range through 2025. This outlook is underpinned by the strong cohesion within OPEC+ and the clear production strategy set by the eight-OPEC+ group, which retains flexibility to adjust targets in response to market conditions.
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