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Sharing victory in post-war Syria: call for bids

Commentary Materials 22 November 2017 12:32 (UTC +04:00)
Stakes are high, but what about people of Syria?
Sharing victory in post-war Syria: call for bids

Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov. 22

By Azer Ahmadbayli– Trend:

On the eve of trilateral summit in Russian Sochi, where Iran, Russia and Turkey are going to launch process of political reconciliation in Syria, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has made a symbolic statement, saying that the Islamic State terrorist group has been eliminated.

There will be many right things said about future of Syria: surely peace should be established in Syria and it should be a single state with nation-wide elected president and government and so on.

But it is not a secret that behind the right things there are interests.

Despite that all the involved parties were repeatedly voicing that their aim in Syria was to defeat ISIS, it is obvious that their plans go beyond the public declarations and they wouldn’t mind to get a piece of the "Syrian pie".

Though the US has not had a mandate from Syrian current government to military stay in the country, Washington has sent a firm signal that it is not going to leave Syria now.

The US representative to the UN, Nikki Haley said last week that with the unity of the UN Security Council, or alone, Washington “will continue to fight for justice and accountability in Syria.”

It is also hard to imagine that Iran, which has made great efforts to stake a claim to its particular role in Syria, will easily abandon its influence in the country. On the contrary, it will try to consolidate its position in Syria as much as possible to have a springboard for Israeli deterrence.

All possible arguments are used to reinforce positions prior to beginning of negotiations.

President Rouhani’s words have not been a simple statement of fact but a clear reminder of Iran’s exclusive role in the victory with which everyone should reckon.

Also, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had said that the militant group will pull out of Iraq once Baghdad confirms Islamic State has been completely defeated and he will divert his forces to "areas where they are needed" – another hint at that Iran is a powerful negotiator.

Turkey’s key condition is to ensure the state’s security by clearing Turkish-Syrian border regions of the Kurdish YPG (Peoples' Protection Units) terror groups.

Turkey also insists on the protection of the demographic structure in north-western Syria particularly in Afrin, where ethnic Turkmens live.

Earlier President Erdogan accused the US of supporting YPG in sprawling out Syrian towns Raqqa, Manbij and Deir az-Zor, captured after ISIL quit – places where Kurds never lived.

We don’t want to face the same situation again in Afrin, he said.

Another demand of Turkey is Assad’s leave.

President Putin was quite sincere when in his time at the end of 2015 he said that Russia’s permanent military presence in Syria was not necessary.

Russia is pursuing quite another purpose which is to mend relations with US on a par with all the attendant consequences such as recognition of Russia’s role as a global, not regional power, lifting sanctions, non-interference in the post-soviet geopolitical space that, Russia believes, is of its jurisdiction, etc.

So, Syria is no more than one of the bargaining chips in Russian arsenal to achieve the main goal that is to come to terms with the US.

This is the key point in the whole story where other participants will have to settle only for tactical acquisitions.

Meanwhile, Russia will try to achieve its goal, in part or fully, at any cost, due to its most preferable position among the three – Assad visited President Putin the day before the summit for good reason. Syrian president understands that further rapprochement with Iran could cause new unwanted issues in Syria, not to mention Turkey, which opposes the Assad’s regime.

What price would Russia be prepared to pay in order to advance its national interests – fate of Bashar Assad or breaking up Shiite Arc by letting Iranian influence in Syria down, or oil fields in eastern Syria?

Stakes are high, but what about people of Syria?

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