Iran’s survival strategy: crouching tiger, hidden dragon

Iran’s survival strategy: crouching tiger, hidden dragon

Baku, Azerbaijan, April 3

By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:

Iran has not had much luck with the 45th president of the United States.

The date of November 3, 2020 – presidential election in the United States – Iranian authorities are waiting for this with nearly more impatience than the Americans themselves.

On this day, it will become clear what Iran will expect in the coming years. Will the re-elected President Donald Trump continue his crippling policy towards the Islamic Republic or a new US president will be more open for discussion and compromise?

Tehran has reason to hope for the better, if representatives of the Democratic Party, many of which support the nuclear agreement with Iran and call on the US to join it again, come to power in the White House.

Lately, several announced presidential candidates from the Democratic Party have already said that if they win the elections, the US will re-enter the agreement. Among them are Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and some others.

Democrats' statements range from revising terms of validity for the main nuclear restrictions as a condition for returning to JCPOA to joining it without preconditions, but the general direction is clear – Washington's return to the nuclear agreement.

It is not excluded that Iran would willingly agree to new negotiations and even concessions, if someone else was in Trump's place.

In the meantime, Iran is applying the most favorable survival strategy in adverse conditions. This means showing endurance, not forcing events, avoiding regional risks, maintaining internal stability, and getting to the US president election day without any upheaval and with the political and military assets available.

This tactic is clearly visible, in the first place, on two examples: Tehran's attitude to the implementation of EU's obligations under the nuclear agreement, and the reaction to the Israeli attacks in Syria.

Europe actually came out of the nuclear deal, and a financial mechanism created for trade with Iran is akin to a "sad joke", said the Supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a speech on Iranian TV.

It is hard to dispute this claim. For too long, Europeans have been feeding Tehran with promises, each time delaying real measures to fulfill their obligations under the nuclear agreement. However, Tehran has been displaying amazing patience and is in no hurry to reject the formal European support.

Within quite a long time, Israel has made scores of air attacks on Iran-controlled military facilities in Syria. Despite that, Tehran has never retaliated in return.

In early February, after another Israeli air strike, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Shamkhani warned Tel-Aviv that the continuation of attacks on Iranian facilities in Syria will no longer be tolerated adding that next time the Iranian response will be "aggressive and decisive."

The latest Israeli air strike on March 27 on the Sheikh Najjar industrial zone, where, according to Israeli media reports, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the production of high-precision Fajr-5C missiles, and an arms depot near the Aleppo international airport, was also left unanswered.

Again, as in the above mentioned case, Tehran is adherent to avoid strong response.

There are other examples when Iran, in order to preserve some of its important assets, made concessions in something else. For instance, Tehran has agreed to sign the Convention on the Caspian Sea on terms which it has always rejected. A year ago, prior to the US exit from the nuclear agreement and imposition of sanctions, the Iranian position was adamant, and no one would claim it could change.

In this particular case, Iran's asset was the political support from Russia amid confrontation with the United States and importance of economic ties with the Caspian littoral states under the sanctions.

Six months following the US presidential election, Iran will hold its own in May 2021. Largely depending on the results of the American choice, Tehran will have to determine its future policy. It may be the further commitment to the nuclear agreement or moving on to plan B that Iran likely already has.

Until then, Iran is unlikely to rock the boat.

Official: Epidemiological situation in Georgia is manageable and under control
Official: Epidemiological situation in Georgia is manageable and under control
Kazakhstan sends military medical team to Lebanon after Beirut blast
Kazakhstan sends military medical team to Lebanon after Beirut blast
Kazakhstan, Switzerland trade turnover plummets during COVID-19
Kazakhstan, Switzerland trade turnover plummets during COVID-19
Loading Bars
Latest
Brazil surpasses 100,000 deaths, 3 mln cases of COVID-19
Trump signs orders to extend certain COVID-19 relief after Congress fails to reach deal
Turkey reports 1,172 new COVID-19 cases, 239,622 in total
Czech apartment fire kills 11, including three children
Moscow's death toll from confirmed coronavirus cases rises by 12 to 4,572 - crisis center
WHO reports one-day surge in coronavirus cases by over 284,000
Plane crashes in Portuguese-Spanish joint fire operation, one killed
Lebanese PM says only way out of crisis is holding early elections: statement
Over 230 injured in Beirut protests - Lebanese Red Cross Society
Ireland reports highest number of new COVID-19 cases since early May
Beirut explosion death toll rises to 158, over 6,000 injured: Health ministry
Android goes on being most popular operation system in Azerbaijan
Turkey records decline in carpet export in 1H2020
Official: Epidemiological situation in Georgia is manageable and under control
Iranian mayors express readiness to help Beirut after blast
Kazakhstan sends military medical team to Lebanon after Beirut blast
Protesters storm Lebanon's Foreign Ministry
Oil spill threatens ecological disaster as Mauritius declares emergency
Belarus reports 124 new COVID-19 cases, total reaches 68,738
Azerbaijani president congratulates president of Singapore
Azerbaijani MFA: Armenia is making attempts to illegally resettle Armenians from Middle East to Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent regions
Iran declares amount of funds to be paid for construction of Ardabil-Mianeh railway
Iran Red Crescent delivers 15 tons of food to Lebanon Red Cross
Turkey to allocate Port of Mersin for Beirut's use, top Turkish official says
PM Gakharia: Georgia ready for NATO membership
Libya reports 200 new COVID-19 cases
Weekly review of Azerbaijani currency market (Aug. 3-7)
Iran announces balance of bank loans
Total COVID-19 recoveries number exceeds 30,000 in Azerbaijan
Uzbekistan's capital to establish co-op with Japan's Nagoya city
Georgia becomes net importer of apples in 2019/2020 season
Iran's parliament to review stock exchange, foreign currency rates
Ferrero to purchase hazelnuts from Georgian Hazelnut Producers Association
Number of trucks under repair in Iran announced
Weekly review of Azerbaijan's precious metals market (July 31-August 7)
Uzbekistan drills new well at gas field in country's Bukhara region
Turkmengas announces tender for purchase of electrical equipment
Turkmenistan’s Oil Refineries Complex opens tender for gasoline purchase
Kazakhstan, Switzerland trade turnover plummets during COVID-19
Azerbaijan's fund reveals amount of compensations paid to depositors of liquidated banks
Transit-oriented development centers to be established in Iran
France becomes main supplier of natural butter to Uzbekistan
Gasification of new settlements carried out in Turkmenistan's Lebap region
Assistant to president: Establishing of Azerbaijan Investment Holding - big step
Azerbaijani oil prices down
Nokia's new CEO working on setting strategy in 'dream job'
Current epidemiological situation not safe enough for weddings - assistant to president
Ministry: Georgia sees increase in export price of blueberries
Iran reveals number of enterprises to commission in Bushehr Province
TABIB: Visits of foreign doctors to Azerbaijan arranged on basis of interstate agreements
Turkmenistan reconstructs gas supply system in country's Mary region
Iran reveals its COVID-19 data for August 8
Uzbekistan increases butter production
Flights to resume to more destinations - assistant to Azerbaijan's president
Iran's National Petrochemical Company talks increasing propylene production
Turkmenistan, Germany to continue co-op within international organizations
Iran discloses exports from Sistan and Baluchestan Province
Huge volumes of investments withdrawn from Iranian economy
Azerbaijani government takes measures to revive business - deputy economy minister
Assistant to president: Reopening of restaurants in outdoor areas in Azerbaijan discussed
Iran's gasoline consumption declines amid coronavirus spread
Uzbekistan, Oman to expand cooperation in logistics
Azerbaijani association talks impact of COVID-19 pandemic on real estate insurance market
Assistant to Azerbaijan's president: Non-grocery stores to open, other restrictions eased
We all tired of quarantine, it's kind of torment - assistant to president
Turkmenistan, WHO discuss measures to combat coronavirus
Capital of Azerbaijani investment company Uni Capital significantly grows
Azerbaijan’s BTB Bank increases assets
International Bank of Azerbaijan significantly reduces rate on business loans
Uzbekistan starts privatization of Uzbek Coca-Cola JV
Ministry of Industry, Mine & Trade of Iran announces its strategy
Azerbaijani Defense Ministry: Ex-Armenian president denies facts about 2016 April battles
Uzbekistan's COVID-19 cases nearing 30,000
Facebook maintains its position as most popular social network in Azerbaijan
Georgia reports 3 new cases of COVID-19, 2 recoveries
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic phoned President Ilham Aliyev
French Alstom launches validation test of locomotives in Azerbaijan
Germany allocates funds to Georgia for regional projects
Turkey's export of cement increases year-on-year
Central Bank of Iran: foreign currency prices to fall in country
Azerbaijan's Uni Capital investment company increases profits
Turkey's jewelry export to int'l market plummets
Turkey's export of chemical products to other counties drops
Volume of cargo transshipment through Turkish Ambarli port in 1H2020 revealed
Imported vehicles still waiting to be released from Iran's customs
Export from Azerbaijan to Turkey increases
Google remains most used search engine in Azerbaijan
Armenia violates ceasefire with Azerbaijan 35 times
Demand for Turkish-made carpets down at global market
LOT Polish Airlines to operate charter flight in direction of Warsaw-Tbilisi-Warsaw
Turkey's export of defense products to int'l markets down since early 2020
Chrome remains most used internet browser in Azerbaijan
UK investors' interests of Turkmenistan's economic sectors revealed
20 killed in random shooting in Burkina Faso
Kazakhstan reports 907 new COVID-19 cases for past day
Iran ready to dispatch medical equipment to Beirut: Hatami
China reports 31 new COVID-19 cases in mainland
Trump says he will join international aid conference call for Lebanon
Fourteen more coronavirus patients die in Moscow in past day
Number of COVID-2019 cases across globe up by over 278,000 in past day — WHO
All news