Baku, Azerbaijan, March 9
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Lower OPEC market share could complicate whether its members will renegotiate voluntary supply reductions for the second half of 2017, according to the report of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
“While supply from non-OPEC countries in the second quarter of 2017 is expected to be close to its level from the fourth quarter of 2016, OPEC supply is forecast to decline during the same period,” said the EIA March Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO).
EIA estimates that the total OPEC crude oil supply will stand at 32.70 million b/d in 2017 and 33.20 million b/d in 2018.
The quarterly forecasts for OPEC crude oil supply for 2017 is as follows: 32.22 million b/d in 1Q 2017, 32.57 million b/d in 2Q 2017, 32.95 million b/d in 3Q 2017 and 33.03 million b/d in 4Q 2017.
EIA expects OPEC members to produce 33.02 million b/d of oil in 1Q 2018, 33.30 million b/d in 2Q 2018, 33.29 million b/d in 3Q 2018 and 33.19 million b/d in 4Q 2018.
During a meeting in Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 30, 2016, OPEC members decided to implement a new production target of 32.5 million barrels per day. Later, non-OPEC countries agreed to cut the output by 558,000 barrels per day during the meeting held Dec. 10, 2016.
OPEC and non-OPEC countries pledged to start implementing the deal from Jan. 1, 2017 for six months, extendable for another six months.
OPEC and non-OPEC producers have achieved a conformity level of 86 percent, according to the January report of the Joint OPEC-Non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).
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