Azerbaijan, Baku, 18 September/ Trend , corr U. Sadigova, G. Ahmadova/ Failure of Fatah in talks with Israel increases chances of Islamic resistance movement Hamas for victory in election for the head of Palestinian Autonomy. Oppositionists' coming to power will prevent Western and Israeli pressure over autonomy.
"Popularity of Hamas indicates that new president of the autonomy will be Islamist, but US and Europe influence on the political life of the autonomy will be key obstacle to it," George Rishmawi, director of International Middle East Media Center said to Trend by e-mail from Ramallah.
The term of office of Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas expired on 6th September. Next elections in the autonomy will be held in January 2009. However, Abbas has announced that he is not going to quit post of PA leader until 2010, Aljazeera reported quoting Palestine's official sources.
The victory of Fatah in 2005 presidential election in West Bank could not impede increasing pressures from the key rival - Hamas who has more chances to rule in the region. By wining 2006 parliamentary elections Hamas took control over Gaza Strip, but today majority of Palestinian citizens want Hamas to rule over the autonomy. One the reasons behind it may be that Palestinians consider Hamas policy in its talks with Israel to be more efficient than unsuccessful Fatah attempts.
Even Hamas does not win elections, they will attempt increase their role in talks, but they will not be able to take a direct part in talks, Palestinian expert Rishawi said.
"I do not think Fatah will give them a chance to do that anyway, but they might try to use other ways, such as abducting soldiers to trade them with prisoners or to make political achievements," he said. Economic isolation which affects civilians in Autonomy, is partially favorable for Hamas to increase its influence, Rishawi said.
" Palestine and Israel need a stronger President, but I believe there is pressure on Abbas by Israel and the US and possible some Arab leaders that he should not resign, fearing that an Islamist president will win any future elections, although Hamas' popularity has dropped, but I do not believe they want to take this risk. Taking into consideration expiration of term of office of both Israeli and Palestinian leaders, political ambitions of Hamas are more real now. Hamas displayed its intentions to be engaged in direct talks in July of 2008 by signing truce with Israel.
An independent European expert Chris Doyle believes Hamas is able to stabilize situation in the region by prolonging the truce. Both Olmert and Abbas have a bad reputation now which will contribute to authority of Hamas even if the Movement does win elections officially.
"It is very unlikely at all that Hamas will have any role in negotiations with Israel, nor is it clear that it seeks such a role," Chris Doyle, director of Council of Arab- British Understanding (CAABU) said to Trend .
The Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas was founded by the Sheik Ahmad Yasin 0n 14 December 1987 to liberate occupied Palestinian lands. Its relations with Fatah strictly deteriorated after the victory in 2006 parliamentary elections. At present, Gaza is fully controlled by Hamas.
The Fatah movement was founded in 1956. Its historical leader is Yasir Arafat (Abu Ammar). At present, the movement is led by Mahmoud Abbas.
"Every Fatah failure is a chance for Hamas to enlarge in the region," Doyle said.
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