IEA forecasts increase in global oil demand for 2023

Economy Materials 15 February 2023 15:20 (UTC +04:00)
Maryana Ahmadova
Maryana Ahmadova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 15. Global oil demand is expected to increase by 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023 to 101.9 mb/d, Trend reports citing the latest oil market outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

According to the outlook, the growth will be mainly driven by an increase of 1.6 mb/d in demand in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly supported by China (+900,000 b/d).

An increase in air traffic in the current year will provide for jet fuel supply growth, which is expected to surge by 1.1 mb/d globally to 7.2 mb/d - 90 percent of 2019 levels.

The IEA noted that growth of gasoil consumption slowed down significantly in the fourth quarter of 2022 (+150,000 b/d), although it avoided a complete reduction.

Increasingly difficult conditions in the construction and manufacturing industry may lead to a slight decline in the first quarter of the current year (-170 year-on-year), but it is now expected to be less severe than previously thought, the report added.

At the same time, moderate growth should resume from the second quarter of 2023 onwards with a total annual growth of 130,000 b/d. The fall in natural gas prices has minimized incentives for industrial consumers to switch to petroleum products, especially fuel oil.

The IEA expects average switching requirements to drop by about 50,000 b/d in 2023 compared to the same period last year. Mild weather conditions have also significantly reduced the typical seasonal need for heating.