IEA shares forecast on Russia's gas supplies to Europe

Economy Materials 21 February 2023 14:13 (UTC +04:00)
Maryana Ahmadova
Maryana Ahmadova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 21. Russian piped gas deliveries to the EU in 2023 are expected to decrease by about 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) to just 25 bcm, Trend reports via the latest overview of European gas market from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

According to the agency, this estimations is made assuming gas supply through TurkStream and Ukraine will continue at the average flow rates observed in December 2022.

Thus, this would result in a year-on-year drop of 58 bcm in gas supply to the EU.

Russia’s piped natural gas exports to OECD Europe dropped by an estimated 49 percent, or 82 bcm, year-on-year in 2022, which is their lowest level since the mid-1980s. While, the supplies to Türkiye decreased by 15 percent year-on-year, the deliveries to the EU more than halved, declining by 78 bcm, compared to 2021.

Despite a sharp decline in Russian pipeline gas supplies, the EU has been able to fill its gas storage facilities to levels well above historical averages, the IEA noted.

"Inventory levels reached 95 percent of their working storage capacity by mid-November and closed the calendar year standing at 20 percent, or 14 bcm, above their five-year average. This progress was tremendously encouraging, but we should note that the ability to repeat this accomplishment for next winter could be hindered by the reduced availability of Russian piped gas to inject into storage," the agency explained.

Overly mild weather in October and the first half of November efficiently delayed the start of the heating season in the EU by one month, allowing to inject 4 bcm of gas between mid-October and mid-November, the report added.

"The strong storage build-up was supported by a combination of well-tailored policy measures, a record inflow of LNG and a steep drop in natural gas consumption, in particular in gas-intensive and energy-intensive industries. The current natural gas crisis makes it clear that clean energy transitions are urgent and will help to increase stability in the global gas market," the agency explained.