BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 17. Over the next six years, the growth in OPEC+ oil supply, which includes condensates and natural gas liquids (NGLs), is expected to be modest, with an increase of only 690,000 b/d, Trend reports.
As the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects, the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan will compensate for losses primarily from Russia, Mexico, and Angola. This projection assumes that starting from 2025, the supply from core Gulf producers will rise or fall proportionally based on the demand for OPEC crude oil. These Middle Eastern countries, along with Russia, are the key players in the OPEC+ alliance, responsible for about half of the world's oil supply.
In 2022, the OPEC+ bloc's total oil output, including condensates and NGLs, surged by 3.1 mb/d, reaching an average of 52.1 mb/d, as it gradually phased out the record cuts implemented in 2020. However, this year is expected to see a decline of 470,000 b/d, with Russia facing sanctions and Middle East producers constrained by additional OPEC+ cuts that will continue until 2024.
The 23-member alliance agreed to reduce their oil supply in late 2022 to support the market amid a deteriorating economic outlook and downward pressure on prices. In May 2023, output decreased further following the implementation of new voluntary cuts announced by select countries in April. In early June, the bloc extended its output reduction along with the voluntary cuts through 2024.