ESAI: Global oil demand will increase

Oil&Gas Materials 27 July 2011 17:36 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, July 27 / Trend A.Badalova /

The Energy Security Analysis (ESAI) has announced its expectations that global oil demand will grow by an average of 1.5 million b/d compared to the first half of the year.

"There is no doubt that the demand for oil will be significantly higher in the second half than the first half of 2011. The cooling of the Arab spring and the recovery of Japan will guarantee that
outcome," the ESAI report reads.

The main engines for the demand growth will be countries of Asia and the Middle East.

The U.S. state Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that global oil demand was 87.38 million barrels per day in the first half of 2011, which at 1.56 million barrels per day above the figure in the same period of 2010.

OPEC will easily meet at least half of the increase in demand in the second half. The other half will just as easily come from non-OPEC crude and nonconventional fuels, the report reads.

ESAI estimates that OPEC production in July will easily be as much as 1.0 million b/d higher than the March low point and production is rising, especially in Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

ESAI suggests that the world oil prices will fall on the weakening of the Libyan crisis.

"The Libya crisis continues, but is still likely to end within the next 6-12 months rather than result in a drawn out civil war. We expect that when the gasoline season is over, oil prices could fall significantly below current levels," the report reads.

Following the trading on Tuesday, July 26, the September futures price for WTI rose by $0.39 to $99.59 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the London Stock Exchange the September futures price for Brent rose by $0.34 to $118.28 per barrel.