EIA ups forecasts for oil prices
Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.12
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $74 per barrel (b) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average more than $67/b in 2019, EIA said in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Both of these forecasts are $3/b higher than the forecast from the August STEO.
“The higher price forecast reflects a lower forecast for global oil supply in 2019 based on lower expected production from the United States, Canada, and OPEC non-crude oil liquids. The lower production forecast is only partially offset by lower forecast oil demand for next year,” said the report.
EIA said that although crude oil prices were up for August as a whole, crude oil prices and prices for commodities more broadly fell in early August.
“Significant declines in some emerging market currencies may have contributed to increased concerns about global economic growth and its potential impact on oil demand. However, oil prices rose in the second half of August following reports of reduced purchases of Iranian crude oil ahead of the United States reinstituting sanctions on Iran in November. Other supply developments likely contributed to a pull on oil inventories, which contributed to higher prices,” said the report.
EIA estimates that Iranian crude oil production declined 0.2 million b/d from July to August. “If the reduction in Iranian crude oil production and exports is larger than expected, the disruption to the crude oil market in the fourth quarter of 2018 could result in price increases.”
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