Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Global energy-related CO2 emissions will grow 0.6 percent per year from 2018 to 2050, Trend reports citing the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
However, future growth in energy-related CO2 emissions is not evenly distributed across the world: relatively developed economies collectively have no emissions growth, so all of the future growth in energy-related CO2 emissions is among the group of countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Countries outside of the OECD collectively have more population, a larger gross domestic product, more energy consumption, and higher energy-related CO2 emissions compared with aggregated values from OECD countries. In IEO2019, growth rates for these data series are also higher for non-OECD countries than for OECD countries.
As non-OECD countries continue to grow, so does their demand for air conditioning, electronics, personal vehicles, and other energy services. These countries also have relatively energy-intensive industries, primarily because energy-intensive industrial processes often shift to non-OECD countries. Energy consumption in non-OECD countries increases by 1.6 percent per year from 2018 to 2050, and energy-related CO2 emissions increase by 1 percent per year.
EIA projects that energy-related CO2 emissions from OECD countries will decrease slightly (-0.2 percent) from 2018 to 2050 in the IEO2019 Reference case. OECD CO2 emissions from petroleum liquids and coal consumption decline, but emissions from natural gas consumption increase.
EIA expects the United States to remain the largest emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions among OECD members and the largest emitter of natural gas-related emissions among all countries, regardless of OECD membership, through 2050.
Petroleum liquids-related CO2 emissions from the United States and China—the top two petroleum liquids-related CO2 emitters—are relatively similar throughout the projection period. EIA’s IEO2019 Reference case projections for the United States are consistent with those in the Reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook 2019.
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