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Russian jet fuel demand set to plummet – IEA

Oil&Gas Materials 14 April 2022 13:58 (UTC +04:00)
Russian jet fuel demand set to plummet – IEA
Laman Zeynalova
Laman Zeynalova
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 14. Jet fuel demand in Russia is forecast to decline by 41 percent or 100 kb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2022, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA says in its latest report that the recovery in aviation is progressing slightly slower than expected, as sanctions on Russia and an outbreak of Covid cases in China have tempered the rebound in global air traffic in recent weeks.

“In March, total air traffic remained roughly 25% below 2019 levels, with international travel 35 percent lower and domestic flights down by 15%. The number of flights at Sheremetyevo, Moscow’s busiest airport, has fallen by half since the start of the war in Ukraine. Sanctions have closed several international routes and fears that aircraft may be seized in foreign countries have also stopped many leased planes from leaving Russia. The situation is expected to deteriorate further through the end of the forecast as aircraft experience difficulties in carrying out due maintenance under the current sanctions. Jet fuel demand in Russia is forecast to decline by 41 perent or 100 kb/d year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2022,” the report reads.

In China, domestic flights fell by more than 70 percent in recent weeks while international travel remains roughly 80 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

“Chinese air traffic is unlikely to fully recover by the end of 2022 under the current zero-Covid policy. For 2022 as a whole, Chinese jet kerosene demand is projected to post a small decline of 25 kb/d (3.5 percent) versus previous expectations for a 10 kb/d growth. Elsewhere, traffic continued to recover in recent weeks with falling Covid cases. Latest data show total North America traffic only 11 percent below 2019 levels (versus 14 percent last month). Air traffic in Western Europe was 18 percent lower (versus 29 percent last month), while South East Asia and North East Asia were 43 percent and 46 percent short of 2019 levels, respectively. Jet/kerosene consumption in 1Q22 was 920 kb/d higher y-o-y but remains 2.1 mb/d below 1Q19,” the report says.

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