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Weekly review of key events in Azerbaijan's fuel and energy sector

Oil&Gas Materials 21 April 2024 07:10 (UTC +04:00)
Lada Yevgrashina
Lada Yevgrashina
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BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 21. Production of oil with gas condensate in Azerbaijan from January through March 2024 amounted to 7.261 million tons, which is six percent lower than from January through March 2023, the State Statistics Committee (SSC) said, Trend reports.

Meanwhile, production of commercial oil with condensate was 7.244 million tons (down six percent). The decline is mainly due to a decrease in crude oil production at Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli, a key block of Azerbaijan's fields, due to natural geological reasons. In 2023, Azerbaijan's production of oil with gas condensate amounted to 30.19 million tons (a 7.5 percent decline to 2022), and production of about 30 million tons of oil is also scheduled for this year.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects average daily oil production in Azerbaijan to reach 0.6 million bpd in 2024 and 0.64 million bpd in 2025.

A significant part of oil from Azerbaijan is exported, and for 2 years only through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline.

According to the State Statistics Committee, the volume of pumping from January through March 2024 amounted to 5.867 million tons, compared to 6.224 million tons in the same period in 2023. At the same time, the total volume of oil pumped from all sources in the Caspian region via BTC amounted to 7.267 million tons, up from 7.245 million tons in the same period in 2023.

The State Customs Committee also recorded a decrease in Azerbaijan's oil exports (nomenclature code 2709) according to declarations. According to this body, in January–March 2024, the indicator decreased by 17.6 percent against January–March 2023, to 5.6 million tons. Azerbaijan's revenue from the sale of these oil volumes amounted to $3.4 billion, which is 18.27 percent less than the revenue for January–March 2023.

Among the leaders in the purchase of Azerbaijani oil is traditionally Israel, which in the first quarter increased purchases of Azerbaijani oil by almost 44 percent (compared to the first quarter of 2023), bringing them to 1.022 million tons and paying $621 million for them.

Italia, which usually tops the list of Azerbaijan's oil buyers, reduced its purchases by 14 percent in the first quarter of 2024, buying 1.93 million tons of Azerbaijani oil worth $1.2 billion.

Great Britain returned to the list of buyers of Azerbaijani oil, which in March purchased 20.58 thousand tons of oil from Azerbaijan for an amount of almost $11 million.

Meanwhile, other Caspian countries also use BTC. The State Statistics Committee estimates that from January through March 2024, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan transported a total of 1.4 million tons of oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC) against 1.02 million tons in the same period of 2023.

Additionally, this week it became known that Kazakhstan is considering increasing trans-Caspian sea transportation of oil (mainly in the direction of Baku) to 7 million tons per year and is ready to consider the construction of an oil pipeline on the Caspian Sea bed.

Kazakhstan transited through Baku via BTC in 2023, with 1.4 million tons of oil; this year, 1.7 million tons were planned, with further growth to 2.2 million tons per year.

KazMunayGas and SOCAR are analyzing the possibilities of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline, which has been idle for two years, to increase transit through Baku. SOCAR reported that over a quarter of a century, 100 million tons of Azerbaijani oil have gone to world markets via Baku-Supsa.

bp as operator of the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) project, announced on April 16 the start of oil production from the new Azeri Central East (ACG) platform as part of the development of the ACG field block in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea. This fact is important, as ACG accounts for almost two-thirds of Azerbaijan's oil production. The launch of ACG is designed to level the decline in oil production in the country.

Revenues from oil exports are accumulated in the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ), which, as of early April 2024, had assets totaling nearly $57.3 billion (up 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024).

The revenues of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ) amounted to almost 5.2 billion manat ($3 billion) from January through March 2024, while expenditures amounted to 3.2 billion manat ($1.8 billion).

A portion of the oil produced in Azerbaijan is used for the production of oil products (carried out at the Baku refinery). The State Customs Committee of Azerbaijan reported a 65 percent decrease in exports of oil products from the country. According to the SCC, Azerbaijan exported 105,240 tons of oil products worth $62.8 million from January through March 2024, while in the first quarter of 2023, exports amounted to 300,330 tons worth $179.4 million.

The State Statistics Committee reported that Azerbaijan produced oil products worth 1.2 billion manat ($705,000) from January through March 2024, which is 5.4 percent more than the same period last year.
As for gas, it became known about the growth of its production and export.

Thus, according to the SCS, gas production in Azerbaijan from January through March 2024 amounted to 12.573 bcm, which is 3.4 percent more than the indicator for the same period in 2023. At the same time, production of marketable gas (gas for all types of consumers inside and outside the country) amounted to 9.682 bcm (an increase of 5.4 percent).

Out of marketable gas, Azerbaijan exported 4.933 bcm from January through March 2024 (data from the State Customs Committee) worth $1.7 billion.

Additionally, it became known that the topic of increasing gas supplies would be discussed during the visit of the Bulgarian President to Baku on May 7-8 (Bulgaria has been buying Azerbaijani gas since 2021).
Some of the gas produced in Azerbaijan goes to SOCAR plants as a raw material for the production of urea and methanol.

However, it became known that SOCAR Methanol LLC, from January through March 2024, produced 144,200 tons of methanol (methyl alcohol), which is 91.5 percent more than in the same period of 2023.
Urea (nitrogen fertilizer) output at the SOCAR Carbamide plant in Sumgayit from January through March 2024 was 167,000 tons, 68.2 percent more than the same period in 2023.

The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) in its analytical material, "Stress tests of Europe's transition from Russian gas to renewable energy," gave a forecast of fluctuations in demand and supply of "blue fuel" in the EU, associated with the EU's large-scale transition to renewable energy. OIES estimated the fluctuations between gas supply and demand in the EU at more than 98 bcm of gas.

The same week, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) in a new report on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market suggested that the peak demand in Europe for LNG will be in 2024 and will exceed last year's figure, which was 134 bcm.

Besides, it became known that SOCAR plans to modernize the CORAF refinery in the Republic of Congo, and SOCAR Türkiye Energy will take part in the energy congress in Rotterdam.

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