Comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran seems unlikely

Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.7 By Umid Niayesh - Trend: As the deadline in nuclear negotiations between Iran and P5+1 is approaching, the doubts increase over reaching a comprehensive nuclear accord until Nov.24 . Iran and P5+1, including the U.S, UK, France, Russia, China plus Germany, reached an interim nuclear deal on November 24, 2013, which was prolonged in July for further 4 months to Nov.24. Now, Iran and P5+1 are talking over the comprehensive nuclear deal.

Saeed Yari the Chief Secretary of the Organization on Iran's National Interest Protection (NIP) told Trend on Nov.6 that there is an increase in opinions to extend the interim nuclear deal, due to lack of an agreement between Iran and P5+1. However, The United States Secretary of State John Kerry said on Nov.5 that the U.S. is not thinking the extend of the interim nuclear accord. Kerry said as he met with his French counterpart, Laurent Fabius ahead of a crucial round of talks over Tehran's nuclear activities, and reminded that Iran has a right to a peaceful program, but not a track to a bomb.

Raymond Tanter, the professor emeritus of political science at the University of Michigan told Trend that Iran hasn't fulfilled its nuclear commitments, for instance Iran hasn't allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to visit the Parchin military base yet. "Announcing to the world that Iran has a right to a nuclear program that is peaceful not military and that it is easy to prove that the program is peaceful is like announcing to proven arsonists who engage in cheating that they have the right to carry matches and fuel that easily ignites so long as they do not intend to light any fires," he said.

Tanter believes that it makes no sense to tell Iranian negotiators they can enrich on Iranian soil with the inspections regime currently in place and when research on detonators is illicitly occurring on military sites off limits to inspections.

"Inspectors are not allowed to gain access to Parchin on the grounds that it is a military site off limits to the IAEA. Despite appeals by the IAEA to visit Parchin, Iran has remained adamant in its refusal to grant access to this site, having engaged in a massive cleansing effort already. Iran is following best practices of states with nuclear programs that produced a bomb - hiding and denying intent to build until it is too late to stop them," Tanter said.

Western intelligence agencies believe that Iran tested detonation systems for a nuclear bomb at Parchin as recently as 2003. Iranian expert Reza Taghizadeh also told Trend on Nov.5 that The U.S. can go to a "common nuclear accord" with Iran to gain time for further negotiations as well as avoiding a failed nuclear deal, but it seems reaching a "comprehensive nuclear agreement" until Nov.24 is impossible. "Failure in nuclear talks can damage the image of President Barak Obama Administration and give the Republicans upper hand in the future presidential elections," Taghizadeh said.

Taghizadeh added that the cooperation between Iran and IAEA has reached a deadlock since two months ago, on the other hand, Iran hasn't accepted the Additional Protocol of IAEA which allows the Agency to carry out sudden inspections on Iran's nuclear facilities.

IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said previously that Iran had not carried out two of the five transparency steps it had agreed to implement by Aug. 25. The two issues that have not yet been addressed by Iran under a cooperation pact with the IAEA are - alleged experiments on explosives that could be used for an atomic device and also studies related to calculating nuclear explosive yields.

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