Shah Deniz consortium: pre-election silence
Azerbaijan, Baku, Dec. 24 / Trend /
Trend analytical center expert Azer Ahmadbayli
Choosing the route of Caspian gas supplies to Europe, the consortium developing Azerbaijani large field "Shah Deniz", will not do reverence to any side. The price on gas must be on the top of the pyramid of interests. Other parameters will be used to extract the maximum profit. The meaning of the word "choice" is distorted. The gas, supplied to the western border of Turkey, will be probably sold there to avoid future risks following the example of the Russian-Ukrainian scenario of 2009. There are several taxis on the Turkish-European border. They propose to transport the goods farther. The so-called "Route Selection" is much more important for the Europeans, especially when we consider Europe as a single entity called the European Union. The EU must be mainly interested where it would be better to direct the pipe and where it is preferable to be finished, given the current state of affairs on the continent.
SOCAR, as a representative of the consortium and the Azerbaijani government, will also take into account the aspects related directly to the interests of the country. This includes the export of maximum volume of gas in time, as well as the diversification of routes, taking into account the sad experience of stopping the operation of pipelines through Georgia in 2008. So, it is possible that for example, two variants of transportation, rather than one may be approved. Yesterday Nabucco Gas Pipeline International GmbH managing director Reinhard Mitschek in an interview with Trend touched on this issue, stating that the "Nabucco" pipeline is open to be connected with other pipelines. "We have also demonstrated openness to connect with other pipelines, if it enhances Nabucco common concept and additional requirements are met," Mitschek said. He also stressed that whenever the gas from the second stage of Shah Deniz field development was extracted, "Nabucco" pipeline will be ready to transport it.
At present, one can say with confidence that taking into account that Azerbaijan and Turkey have never spoken in vain, the "Transanadolu" gas pipeline will be built. This means that after 2017, taking into account the available capacity, export volumes may reach about 26 billion cubic meters per year, including 10 billion via the Turkish existing pipeline system (BOTAS), and 16 billion via "Transanadolu." According to Mitschek's interview, it is possible that besides the gas from the second stage of "Shah Deniz" development, there will be more Azerbaijani gas to be transported to Turkey and European countries by that time.