BAKU, Azerbaijan, Dec. 23
By Maryana Akhmedova – Trend:
Georgia saw double-digit economic growth over the first 10 months of 2021 (10. 5 percent), however, the GDP growth in 2022 is expected at 5.5 percent, Trend reports via the macro-sectoral review of the TBC Capital.
TBC Capital also projects current Georgia’s GDP to increase to 10.8 percent by the end of 2021, although the GDP growth for 2022 has been revised from 6 percent to 5.5 percent.
According to TBC Capital, Georgia’s economic upturn in 2022 strongly depends on tourism recovery.
The revenues from international visitors to Georgia should recover to 75 percent of the 2019 level in 2022. However, the recovering process of business tourism in Georgia will take the longest. According to TBC Capital’s forecast, tourism inflows to Georgia in November 2021 may recover to 55 percent of the 2019 level.
Meanwhile, Georgian trade turnover (exports/imports) will normalize, while the growth rate of foreign direct investments (FDIs) will increase, this time at the expense of equity, the report said.
Normalization of bank lending is expected in 2023, although, with a slower than predicted recovery in tourism, lending will be more moderate in 2022, TBC Capital noted.
TBC Capital forecasts the inflation rate for 2022 at 3 percent, the refinancing rate – at 8.5 percent, while the Georgian lari exchange rate will depreciate by 5 percent.
At the same time, an increase in foreign currency rates is not expected in Georgia, due to the excess liquidity of the foreign currency in the banking sector, structural decline in foreign currency rates in the long run, which had a very weak correlation with the dynamics of international markets, and the expected increase in demand for the Georgian lari, TBC Capital concluded.
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