Who to dare to overthrow Syrian President?
Trend Middle East Desk commentator Aygul Tagiyeva
After Syria's membership in the League of Arab States was suspended and Turkey's attitude toward the Syrian authorities was toughened, foreign intervention in the situation in the country, seems more than probable.
However, as opposed to the recent sad events in Libya, when participating countries of the military operation as if were racing one another, trying to be the first candidates for the invasion in Libya, the international players do not show the same striving for Syria's issues.
The same can be mentioned about the Arab countries. Despite numerous meetings and gatherings over the situation in Syria, they have not achieved real results.
In this case, the following questions arise. Who needs overthrow of President Assad's regime? Who will help the rebels first to achieve this result?
If we consider the situation in Syria through the eyes of the West, the military intervention in Damascus's affairs do not match its interests. First, the West is experiencing an economic crisis. The military operation in Syria is not favorable from a financial point of view. For example, Washington avoids the additional costs to restore order in Syria after the Congress criticized the U.S. involvement in Libya's events and on the eve of the presidential campaign of 2012. An American voter is tired of wars. He will not vote for the administration, which starts military operations having problems in own economy.
Second, there is a factor of Iran and the Shiite movement "Hezbollah". It has already pledged the West a bloody revenge in the case of the West's intervention in Syria's affairs.
Regarding the Arab countries, these countries, especially the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, support Alawite regime in the country that is under Iran's direct control.
However, even taking it into account, the Arab countries are unlikely to take attempt to interfere in the Syrian crisis by themselves.
Taking into account the above-mentioned, Turkey is a major player in resolving the Syrian problem. Ankara maintains the role of a peacemaker in the region. It has its own interest in assisting the Syrian rebels.
From the very beginning of Syrian riots, Ankara was concerned about instability, fearing that Kurdish separatists in Syria will benefit from the chaos. It means a direct blow to the stability in Turkey. Kurdish separatists in Syria maintain close ties with their counterparts living in Turkish territory.
Moreover, the destabilization of the situation in the neighboring country may negatively affect some trade-economic projects of Ankara.
We must remember that Turkey will be able to resist Tehran in the issue of military intervention in Syria's affairs after the decision was made to deploy the missile defense system on its territory. Iran is worried about this.
Many experts have expressed the opinion that the West and the Arab countries rely on Ankara in the settlement of the Syrian crisis and wait for Turkey to overthrow Assad's regime.
Turkey seeks to resolve the conflict in neighboring Syria more than other players. Much depends on what Ankara will say at an emergency meeting on Syria in Morocco on November 16.