Experts: Sanctions against Iran can force Turkey to think about further actions

Politics Materials 11 June 2010 12:56 (UTC +04:00)

Azerbaijan, Baku, June 11 / Trend U. Sadikhova /

Even if new sanctions against Iran do not weaken the role of Turkish diplomacy in solving Iran's nuclear program, Ankara after this will take more convicts steps and act prudently, several experts said.

"The fact that the agreement is not accepted testifies that Turkey will make more cautious decisions and steps. But this does not mean that it will withdraw from its position," the head of the Beirut Center for Strategic Studies Mohammad Noureddine, specializing in Turkish politics - told Trend over phone.

The UN Security Council on Wednesday adopted resolutions imposing new sanctions on Iran over its refusal from ceasing its uranium enrichment.

Twelve members of the Security Council supported the document. Turkey and Brazil voted against, Lebanon - abstained.

This is the fourth resolution adopted by the UN Security Council in connection with Tehran's unwillingness to comply with international demands regarding its nuclear program. The West said that it is aimed at creating a nuclear bomb and possession of nuclear weapons.

Sanctions against Iran were taken, despite numerous calls of Ankara to solve the problem through diplomatic way, particularly after signing a tripartite agreement by Brazil, Turkey and Iran on the export of Iranian uranium on Turkish territory for additional enrichment May 17 in Tehran. Western countries, including the U.S. refused from supporting it.

Experts said that the adoption of sanctions, despite the threat of Iran to refuse from cooperating with the IAEA and the Tehran agreement, will not reduce the role of Turkey in this issue.

Russian expert Yevgeny Satanovsky said that the adoption of sanctions against Iran is not contrary to Turkish interests.

"Turkey has shown the maximal goodwill to Tehran. From the standpoint of Tehran, Turkey is not guilty. It did nothing that would complicate its life," president of the Russian Institute for Middle East, Satanovsky, told Trend over phone.

The interests of Turkey, it reached in the dialogue with Iran, such as the division of spheres of influence in Iraq, which Ankara has achieved following the departure of U.S troops, and energy agreements remain outside of all these problems, Satanovsky said.

Turkey, as a non-permanent member of the Security Council, called the resolution against Iran, which raises concerns about creating new difficulties in resolving the Iranian nuclear program diplomatically wrong, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

Noureddine said that Turkey considers that the imposed sanctions directed not only against Iran but against its efforts to resolve this issue peacefully.

Turkish political analyst Arif Keskin said that Turkey voted against the sanctions, because it had no other choice. Thus, it preserved its place in the future policy on Iran's nuclear program.

"Turkey came out the street, where there is no return. So, it will not turn back to participate in the Iranian nuclear program," the Eurasian Strategic Research Center research fellow told Trend over phone.

Turkish political analyst doubts that the role of Ankara as a mediator in resolving the Iranian nuclear program will be positive. But, nevertheless, it is important for it to reduce the cycle of tension in the Middle East, which arose because of Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

"The war in Iraq has become for Turkey a good example of what happens in the event of inaction and non-interference. The situation around Iran is similar. Turkey is risking its economic relations with Tehran," Keskin said.

Therefore, even if there is no chance that Turkey's mediation is successful, Ankara will not abandon the desire to solve the nuclear issue through diplomatic channels.

But experts, without predicting the concrete steps of Turkey on this issue after the adoption of sanctions, believe that Ankara, faced with a failure to recognize the Tehran Agreement, will continue to take more convicts steps in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program with the West.

If the crisis between Iran and the West increases more in future, then Ankara is unlikely to support Iran till the end and withstand pressure from the West, Iranian political analyst Ahmed Jansiz said.

At this stage, Turkey is unlikely to face a strong disagreement with the Western countries due to sanctions against Iran. But all depends on how events will evolve further, political science professor at Tehran University Jansiz said.

"The government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan today is trying to maintain good relations with both Muslim neighbors, and the countries of the West. If the relations between Iran and the West deteriorate even more, Turkey is unlikely to interfere, Jansiz told Trend over phone from Tehran.

Iranian political analyst doubts that Ankara can deteriorate its relations with Western allies, including the U.S., if the crisis with Iran is intensified.

It is also disadvantageous for the West to lose an ally like Turkey, which prefers the Islamic countries more than former allies, Jansiz said.

"The policy of Western countries led to the fact that Turkey has turned its vector in the direction of the Muslim world. Turkey will continue to move away from Europe because rapprochement with Europe did not give it the desired result," Jansiz said.

Lebanese political analyst Mohammad Noureddine said that Ankara still has no alternative but to continue negotiations to resolve the problem with nuclear program diplomatically and leave Iran to negotiate with the international community.