BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Asian Development Bank (ADB) does not expect the global economy to revive until the second half of 2023, ADB’s Chief Economist Albert Park told Trend.
According to the economist, ADB expects Europe to go into recession in the second half of this year.
“We are a bit more optimistic about the US, because of its employment momentum and the recent moderation of inflation. But there are many risks and uncertainties. There is also a lot of concern about the growth slowdown in China, which is affecting Asian economies,” Park said.
As he explained, a strict zero COVID-19 policy has led to disruptions in supply chains and made consumers there lose confidence and spend less, which led to the economic growth forecast downgrading. At the same time, China had issues with the real estate market, which usually supports growth but has been dormant and over-leveraged. This could also take some time to unwind.
Although ADB’s forecast for Asia is being adjusted downward somewhat, the bank still expects growth in Asia to be somewhere between 4-4.5 percent in 2023, which is reasonably good, and still the fastest growth rate among the major regions of the world, he noted.
“In terms of the global economy really reviving, we do not think it’s likely until maybe the second half of 2023 because we need to see interest rate hikes by the major central banks play out. Once they are done, there may be momentum for recovery,” Park concluded.
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