BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 18. The implementation of stricter efficiency standards by regulators, structural shifts in the economy, and the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) are anticipated to significantly moderate the annual growth of global oil demand in the coming years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports.
In the road transport sector, demand will steadily rise towards a post-pandemic peak of 45.3 mb/d by 2025, only slightly surpassing the 2019 levels, before gradually declining. Globally, road transport oil demand is projected to be 460,000 b/d below the 2019 levels by 2028. To achieve clear peaks in both transport and overall oil demand, with subsequent rapid reductions in usage, further policy interventions and changes in consumer behavior will be necessary.
Gasoline demand will be disproportionately affected as EVs progressively replace vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE). Approximately 80 percent of the estimated 3 mb/d growth in oil demand between 2022 and 2028 that will be displaced by vehicle electrification will come from gasoline. As a result, gasoline is likely to experience the earliest and most significant decline in demand.
As the IEA pointed out, usage will never return to the levels seen in 2019, and the post-pandemic peak for gasoline demand could occur as early as 2023. After a brief plateau, the decline is expected to accelerate from 2026 onwards, with 2028 demand being 900,000 b/d lower than that of 2019.
Overall, total transport demand will reach a plateau in the latter half of the forecast period, with its peak anticipated in 2026. Subsequently, it will gradually decrease as declines in road usage outweigh the continued growth in jet and marine fuels consumption.