Western analysts don't expect US dollar to lose its popularity

Azerbaijan, Baku, Jul. 2 / corr. Trend A.Badalova /

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) publicized this week data on composition of currency in official currency reserves (COFER). Thus, as of the first quarter of 2009 some 65 percent of international official reserves were kept in dollars. It is up 64.1 percent as compared to the same period of 2008.

Despite such data, status of dollar as a reserve currency is made more and more suspicious over the past period. Russia and China acted as major supporters of replacing dollar with another or several currencies. Last week the Chinese Central Bank called on to establish supranational reserve currency, which could replace US dollar. Furthermore, the Chinese People's Bank stated that the IMF should carry out partial management over currency reserves of members-countries.

However, analysts assure that there is no alternative to dollar in term of international currency presently.

It is unlikely that new reserve currency will appear in the near future to replace dollar, British consulting company Capital Economics economist Mark Williams said. 

"Even euro, which is supported by great economy and well developed capital markets, could not gain success as a reserve currency since its moment of issue," Williams thinks.  

Meanwhile, an analyst of Deutsche Bank Norbert Walter believes that euro is an only alternative to status of dollar as a reserve currency. However, further increase of its value in the period of recession in Europe will not enjoy approval in Berlin in Paris, whilst the European Central Bank will more probably decrease further interest rate, Walter thinks.

Asian currencies are unfit for international application due to their inconvertibility, he said. 

Furthermore, if China's currency reserves continue increasing, its dollar assets will inevitably go up, Capital Economics analyst believes. 

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