Impact of EVs on world oil demand will not be huge

Impact of EVs on world oil demand will not be huge

BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 30

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Impact of electric vehicles (EVs) on world oil demand will not be huge, Francis Perrin, Senior Fellow at the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS, Rabat) and at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS, Paris) told Trend.

He noted that the use of electric vehicles (EVs) is growing at a very fast rate.

“According to the consultancy Wood Mackenzie 5 million EVs were on the road throughout the world at the end of 2018 and sales of EVs were estimated at 2.2 million in 2019. 2020 will not be a very good year due to the Covid 19 crisis and the world economic crisis. A very fast growth rate but so far a small share of the world car market (1.2 billion vehicles at end 2018),” said the expert.

Perrin noted that in a long-term perspective EVs will go on developing very fast due to government policies linked to the fight against climate change; technological progress which will lower the prices of EVs as compared with those of ICE (internal combustion engines) vehicles fuelled by motor fuels derived from oil (gasoline and diesel fuel); and increasing awareness from consumers.

“Forecasts are always very difficult but some credible sources (energy companies or consultants) think that there could be about 300-400 million EVs by 2040.

According to ExxonMobil, for every additional 100 million EVs on the road world liquids demand could fall by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2040. This means that, if the forecasts indicated above are correct, world liquids demand could fall by 3.6-4.8 million b/d by 2040. According to Wood Mackenzie EVs could displace about 5 to 6 million b/d of oil (gasoline and diesel) by 2040,” said Perrin.

He pointed out that world oil demand reached 100 million b/d in 2019. “It will of course fall in 2020 but this evolution is not the consequence of the development of EVs but of the world economic crisis linked to the Covid 19 pandemic. World oil demand could fall to about 90 million b/d this year.”

Perrin said that in the long term EVs will take a growing market share of the world car market and then displace part of gasoline and diesel demand, as explained above.

“But oil is not only consumed by car drivers. Petroleum fuels are also used in trucks, planes and ships and, outside the transport sector, in the petrochemical industry and some other industries. The rise of EVs will not threaten the use of oil in these different sectors. Moreover world population will increase by about 2 billion people between now and 2050; and developing and emerging countries will go on consuming more oil for some time,” he said.

Taking into account all these trends the impact of EVs on world oil demand will not be huge, the expert believes.

“ExxonMobil thinks that world oil demand will grow at least until 2040 even if we take into account a considerable increase of the use of EVs in the next 20 years. Some other industry sources or specialized consultants think that oil demand could reach a peak around 2025 or around 2030. Some of them think that oil demand could fall from 2025 onwards or 2030 or 2035 or 2040... And it is true that these forecasts or projections are surrounded by a lot of uncertainties,” said Perrin.

He pointed out that in any case the rise of EVs will not make oil disappear from the world energy scene.

“When we speak about EVs we are speaking about cars and oil is not only about cars but about cars plus trucks plus planes plus ships plus petrochemicals plus some other industrial uses. If the international community really wanted to chase oil out of the world energy market in a long-term perspective it would need EVs plus biofuels plus natural gas as a motor fuel plus hydrogen and not only EVs.”

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

Subscribe to Trend in Google News! Subscribe
Armenia's Deputy PM emphasizes need to promptly begin demarcation of border with Azerbaijan
Armenia's Deputy PM emphasizes need to promptly begin demarcation of border with Azerbaijan
Russia calls for prompt launch of delimitation process of Armenian-Azerbaijani border - MFA
Russia calls for prompt launch of delimitation process of Armenian-Azerbaijani border - MFA
Iranian trucks continue to have trouble on Gorus-Gafan road
Iranian trucks continue to have trouble on Gorus-Gafan road
Loading Bars
Latest
Georgia reports 1,501 coronavirus cases
Iran shares data on cargo transportation in Lorestan Province
Azerbaijani Finance Ministry to auction long-term state bonds
Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan prepares weekly review of activities (VIDEO)
50 million volunteers in 180 countries take part in World Cleanup Day
World leaders return to U.N. with focus on pandemic, climate
COVID-19 death toll surpasses 7,500 in Israel
Indonesian militant leader killed in shootout, police say
Georgia's external debt increases
Turkish state energy exchange company to operate in Uzbekistan
2,781 more COVID-19 cases recorded in Kazakhstan in past 24 hr
US steps up plan to expel Haitian migrants from Texas border city
Israel captures last two prisoners who escaped from Gilboa prison
SpaceX capsule with world's first all-civilian orbital crew splashes down off Florida
Indian gov't asks states to analyze COVID-19 situation, strengthen health infrastructure
Abu Dhabi to remove COVID-19 testing requirement at border starting Sep. 19
Facebook says WSJ allegations are 'mischaracterizations,' confer 'false motives'
Statement made by Russian Defense Ministry regrettable - Azerbaijani Defense Ministry
EU eyes to expand project on creating 'green technologies' in Azerbaijan
Islamic State claims responsibility for attack on Syrian gas pipeline
Geostat shares data on nominal GDP in Georgia
Security Council voices concern over political strife in Somalia
Italy reports 51 coronavirus deaths on Saturday, 4,578 new cases
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price slightly falling
Another visit of Shusha residents to their hometown organized
Three killed in blasts in Afghan city of Jalalabad
Meeting of Azerbaijani and Russian military seamen held in Baku (PHOTO)
Ukraine intends to purchase textile products from Uzbekistan
Georgia's bean imports decrease
Kazakhstan-Croatia trade down y-o-y
Group of Azerbaijani pilots returns home after partaking in Turkey-held military exercises
Azerbaijan records slight decline in volume of cargo shipments via local ports in 8M2021
Iran's Subsidies Targeting Organization makes payments in agriculture sector
Representatives of Azerbaijani Air Force to take part in Teknofest-2021 festival
Argentina’s President Alberto Fernandez reshuffles cabinet after political crisis
Iran to increase area of olive gardens
OIC Ombudsmen Association sums up results of fact-finding mission to Azerbaijani Karabakh (PHOTO)
Azerbaijan's Shusha holding concert within Int'l Music Festival of famous composer Uzeyir Hajibayli (PHOTO)
Azerbaijani First VP Mehriban Aliyeva shares post related to National Music Day on Instagram (PHOTO)
Azerbaijani mortar units continue intensive combat trainings (VIDEO)
Azerbaijan shares data on number of vaccinated citizens
Azerbaijan confirms 2,042 more COVID-19 cases, 3,224 recoveries
Azerbaijan and Georgia remain not only neighbors, but strategic partners - PM
Armenian military expert confirms use of Iskander missiles by Armenia against Azerbaijan
Uzbekistan Airways Technics opens tender for provision of services for sale of materials
Azerbaijan to promote famous composer Uzeyir Hajibayli's heritage worldwide - minister
Number of transactions on Uzbek stock exchange increases
Russian Navy's Caspian Fleet arrive in Baku port
Iran reveals COVID-19 data for September 18
Weekly review of Azerbaijani precious metals market
Uzbekistan reveals number of vaccinated citizens as of September 18
Iran, Tajikistan to increase trade ties
Turkmenistan considers resuming gas supply to Iran
Azerbaijan's Azermash launches new production line for vehicles
Volume of essential products imported to Iran through ports up
Kazakhstan boosts trade with Romania despite global pandemic
U.S. NTSB to probe fatal Tesla crash in Florida
Uzbekistan's private airline performs first flight to UAE
Azerbaijan and Iran hold discussions in connection with Gorus-Gafan road
Kazakh oil company to purchase pipes through tender
Georgia shares data on COVID-19 cases for September 18
MFA's of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan hold political consultations
Renowned Azerbaijani cultural figures arrive in Shusha
OSCE publishes interim report on local elections in Georgia
Azerbaijan’s Baku Metro opens tender to buy insulating materials
Uzbekneftegaz opens tender to buy equipment for turboexpander units
Kazakhstan's oil, gas company to purchase steel via tender
Weekly review of key developments in Azerbaijan's transport sector
IRICA shares data on import of COVID-19 vaccine to Iran
Azerbaijani oil prices up
Iran, Tajikistan sign several bilateral cooperation documents
Film on renowned Azerbaijani composer Uzeyir Hajibeyli produced in Los Angeles
Russia organizes another charter flight to bring its citizens back from Turkmenistan
Weekly review of Azerbaijani currency market
Uzbekistan shares COVID-19 data for September 18
Iranian currency rates for September 18
Iran requires investment for development of joint gas fields - MP
USAID to allocate funds for Georgia to fight COVID-19
Who was behind WB's falsification of data on Azerbaijan in 'Doing Business' reports?
Turkmenistan’s Turkmenbashi oil refineries extends tender for overhaul
Iran receives batch of COVID-19 vaccine from Austria
Monetary conditions in Azerbaijan becoming anti-inflationary - Central Bank
SCO begins Iran's full membership process - MFA
Iran sees decrease in unemployment rate in Tehran
Uzbekneftegaz shares data on weekly oil prices on exchange trading
Gunman convicted in deadly Colorado school shooting gets life without parole
Hydrogen projects to raise demand for water supply via desalination
Oil prices to fall due to rising global oil supply, rather than dwindling demand
Akkuyu NPP construction never stopped for an hour despite pandemic — Rosatom chief
Beijing Stock Exchange specifies investor access thresholds
2,901 more COVID-19 cases reported in Kazakhstan
Georgia shows strong commitment to transitioning to clean energy - GGF
USAID supports citizen engagement in improving infrastructure in Balakan, Gakh and Zagatala (PHOTO/VİDEO)
Argentina's Fernandez reshuffles Cabinet after crisis week
Yemen's gov't complains to UNSC over Houthi attack on Mocha port
U.S. probes possible insider trading at Binance
UN Security Council extends Afghan mission mandate for six months
Oil prices decline amid U.S. dollar strength
G20 meeting on Afghanistan planned for September 22
Algeria's former President Bouteflika dies at 84
All news