BAKU, Azerbaijan, Feb.1
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Total oil demand is expected to stand at 96.4 million barrels per day (mbd) as of 2021, while the total oil supply is forecast at 95.1 million barrels per day, Trend reports with reference to the US JP Morgan Bank.
Quarterly forecast for oil supply is as follows: 93.1 mbd in Q1, 94.8 mbd in Q2, 96.1 mbd in Q3 and 96.5 mbd in Q4, while oil demand will be equal to 92.9 mbd, 95.6 mbd, 98.3 mbd and 98 mbd, respectively.
Oil demand is estimated at 90.7 mbd in January, 94.2 mbd in February, 93.9 mbd in March, 94.5 mbd in April, 95.0 mbd in May, 97.3 mbd in June, 98.1 mbd in July, 98.7 mbd in August, 98.2 mbd in September, 97.8 mbd in October, 98.8 mbd in November and 99.8 mbd in December.
As for oil supply, the figures are forecasted as follows: 93.5 mbd in January, 92.8 mbd in February, 93.2 mbd in March, 94.4 mbd in April, 95.0 mbd in May, 95.1 mbd in June, 96.3 mbd in July, 96.2 mbd in August, 95.7 mbd in September, 96.1 mbd in October, 96.7 mbd in November and 96.6 mbd in December.
"Our view on 2021 demand as a whole has not changed much. We further downgrade 1Q21 demand by 820 kbd, but see global oil demand increasing from 93 mbd this quarter (-6% vs 2019) to 99 mbd in 4Q21 (-2% vs 2019) before finally pulling even with pre-pandemic 2019 levels in May 2022. What has changed is OPEC+’s partial freezing of production growth over February and March and Saudi’s determination to cut 1 mbd of production during the same months when demand is expected to rebound sharply. Despite large demand downgrades we only see 200 kbd surplus in 1Q21 and rapidly tightening markets thereafter (-1.8 mbd), despite OPEC+ increasing production by 2 mbd. This essentially suggests that in order to normalize “stubbornly high” inventories, about 5 mbd of OPEC+’s spare capacity will need to remain out of the market for the entirety of 2H21."
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