Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.12
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The sanctions on Iran will be effective, as far as a physical and financial blockade of Iran’s oil and gas exports is possible, Cyril Widdershoven, a Middle East geopolitical specialist and energy analyst, a partner at Dutch risk consultancy VEROCY and SVP MEA-Risk, told Trend.
He pointed out that at present, a possible barter trade (as proposed by EU) or non-US dollar based oil and gas deals will be not keeping Iran afloat.
“The real issue is if India, China or others are willing to risk a full-scale confrontation with the US, and its USD financial global system) and continue trade. For state-governed entities, such as China, India or Russia, the support of the respective state will keep some of the volumes floating,” said the expert.
For the remaining companies, Widdershoven believes that listings on NYSE or total dependency on USD linked contracts (or US employees in the company) will block trade fully.
“As we have seen, even that Brussels has set up a barter-trade agreement with Iran, European companies have almost all retreated from Iran and closed offices,” he said.
The expert believes that Tehran however can still make money, by illegally (according to US) transporting oil and gas on Iranian vessels or state-owned entities, to Asia, Turkey and others.
“Large discounts on Iranian crude and gas will always attract traders and customers. As some have stated, Iran even could be very happy with the current stress in the market, as it is still exporting large volumes of oil and gas, while prices already have gone up a lot. Revenues of Iran are not yet really hit.”
Sanctions are due to be re-imposed on Iran's oil industry on November 4. The move comes after US President Donald Trump decided to withdraw his country from the 2015 nuclear deal in May.
The US has said that countries or companies that conduct transactions with Iran are liable to face secondary sanctions.
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