BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 6. Increased generation from coal, solar and wind power can fill in for lacking gas supplies with additional 34 TWh from September through March 2023, Trend reports via the research from Rystad Energy, independent energy research and business intelligence company from Norway.
Hydropower generation, on the other hand, after shrinking by 25 percent in 2022, is expected to remain down over the next six months, due to low rainfall levels in Europe.
Meanwhile, nuclear energy generation in the EU has decreased by 14 percent over 2022, while the forecast is also gloomy. “France’s EDF is striving to bring back online the nuclear reactors that are currently under maintenance for the winter. Their restart dates are still uncertain so current low generation levels could be expected,” the report noted.
Nevertheless, solar power generation in 2022 increased by 25 percent, while wind generation is up by 14 percent, due to large added capacities.
Coal power generation has boosted by 12 percent year-on-year, and further increases may occur in December and January if needed. “Load factors have been higher than normal so far this year, but can still rise further to the historical highs of around 70 percent for the fleet as a whole”.
“Growth assumed for the remaining months is in line with capacity additions that could total 25 GW for solar and 15 GW for wind in 2022 – an increase of 16 percent and 8 percent, respectively, year-on-year,” Rystad Energy added.
As the company expects, even additional 34 TWh from coal, solar and wind power generation will not be enough to offset the shortfall in gas, nuclear and hydropower generation, which means that additional measures will be required.
“European electricity demand has shrunk 2.2 percent so far this year, mostly because the record-high prices have reduced demand, particularly from the industrial sector. Continued high prices are likely to keep demand at the current low level or push it even lower. A similar year-on-year drop of 3 percent during over the coming months is feasible, not only as high prices affect industrial and household consumers, but also as a result of electricity-saving measures rolled out by governments,” the report concluded.
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