BAKU, Azerbaijan, February 16. Global oil supply growth is expected to stand at 1.7 mb/d in 2024, Trend reports.
According to the forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the substantial drop in output in January implies that global supplies for this quarter are projected to decrease by an average of 930,000 b/d compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
In January, the global oil supply recorded its most significant monthly decrease of 1.4 mb/d since December 2022, bringing it down to 101.5 mb/d.
In the reporting period, the US production dropped by 540,000 b/d, Canadian supply - by 360,000 b/d. Collectively, extreme North American weather accounted for the shutdown of 900,000 b/d, representing 66 percent of the overall January decline. Including smaller losses elsewhere, total non-OPEC+ supply decreased by 1 mb/d month-on-month, with OPEC+ posting a drop of 360,000 b/d.
However, the surge in non-OPEC+ oil growth is expected to resume in the second quarter of 2024 and maintain an upward trajectory throughout the rest of the year, the agency pointed out.
Given that non-OPEC+ production continues to surpass initial forecasts, the full-year supply is now anticipated to reach a record 103.8 mb/d in 2024. This marks an upward revision of 250,000 b/d from last month's assessment, the IEA noted. The primary contributors to this year's supply growth will be the US, Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, all reaching unprecedented production levels.