Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb.27/ Trend A.Badalova/
The EU countries will not suffer much from halt of Iranian oil exports, leading analysts of the British economic research and consulting company Capital Economics believe.
"Even if Iran does pre-empt the EU embargo by stopping sales to other European countries, the fragility of their economies means that they may well need less oil anyway," British analysts said in a report on the possible risks from Iran for oil market.
Analysts stressed that EU oil consumption has fallen outright in each of the last five years.
The EU formally imposed an oil embargo on Iran and agreed to a freeze on the assets of the Iranian Central Bank on January 23, but existing contracts will be honored until July 1. The EU imports about 20 per cent of Iranian oil which primarily is supplied to the Union's southern countries - Italy, Spain and Greece.
However, Iran banned crude oil supply to France and the UK 5 months before the European Union's last oil embargo resolution over Iran comes into force.
Iran's move is essentially an empty gesture, as the UK and France buy hardly any Iranian oil (only 11,000 and 49,000 barrels per day (bpd) respectively in the first half of 2011, and surely less now), Capital Economics' analysts stressed.
"This is the first time that Iran has acted after months of warnings," they said. "Even so, the step has fallen well short of the threat earlier this month to stop sales to other EU nations, notably Italy and Spain (320,000 bpd between them), who do buy a significant amount of Iranian oil. This is a sign of weakness from Iran, not strength."
With regard to the possible block of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, analysts believe that in this worst case scenario world oil prices could reach $210 per barrel.
However, analysts also remain of the view that any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz would
be a military, economic and political disaster for Iran. "This scenario is therefore very unlikely," they said.