Baku, Azerbaijan, July 12
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
OPEC crude oil output is expected to rise by 0.5 million barrels per day in 2018, driven by an increase in output in Iraq, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
The increase in Iraq’s production in 2018 is expected to result from production coming online that was previously scheduled for 2017, according to the report.
EIA experts believe that OPEC crude oil production is expected to fall by 0.2 million b/d in 2017, as OPEC members have limited production based on the November 2016 agreement.
In May 2017, this agreement was extended through the first quarter of 2018. EIA’s forecast assumes a further extension of the agreement in 2018 but with lesser compliance.
Without a further extension of the agreement, EIA would expect larger inventory builds in 2018 than are included in this forecast.
In both 2017 and 2018, EIA expects crude oil production to increase in Libya and Nigeria, which are countries not covered by the supply reduction agreement.
Libya’s production reached more than 1.0 million b/d in early July, according to the report.
Starting with this STEO, both historical and forecast OPEC production values include Equatorial Guinea. In the first half of 2017, Equatorial Guinea produced about 130,000 b/d of crude oil on average.
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