Fitch Solutions lowers Brent price forecasts for 2019

Baku, Azerbaijan, March 4

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Fitch Solutions Macro Research (a unit of Fitch Group) has made a downward revision to its annual average price forecast for Brent for 2019, from $75 per barrel to $73 per barrel, Trend reports with reference to the company.

Oil has made substantial gains in the year-to-date (YTD) period, rising by around 23 percent, to reach $66.3 per barrel at the time writing, said Fitch Solutions.

“However, almost 10 percent of the total gain occurred over the last two weeks, while sideways trading from mid-January to mid-February has left the YTD average languishing at $62.1 per barrel.

We have adjusted down our forecast to reflect the softer start to the year, but our underlying bullish narrative is unchanged, with positive but slower global economic growth and supply management from OPEC,” said the company.

Fitch Solutions believes that market conditions will be broadly supportive of risk assets in 2019, with global growth softening only gradually and policymakers taking steps to subdue volatility. “Sentiment has been buoyed by a shift in global monetary policy, with the G3 and a host of emerging markets (EMs) changing stance to neutral or dovish in recent months.”

The pause in the US’ rate-hiking cycle also feeds into a softer outlook on the dollar, offering further relief to the wider commodity complex, according to Fitch Solutions.

“Investors are gradually returning to crude and the ratio of long to short positions in Brent has recovered from a low of 2.2 in December to 6.4 as of the end of February,” reads a report from the company.

In view of Fitch Solutions, recession risks are overblown and the global economy will outpace expectations , supporting oil through the impacts on both physical demand and sentiment.

“Our economists forecast real GDP growth of 3 percent y-o-y for 2019, easing from the 3.4 percent we estimate for 2018. The slowdown is being led by developed markets (DMs), where we expect growth to drop by 0.5 percent averaging 2 percent for the year. In contrast, EM growth will stay broadly stable at 4.6 percent, from 4.7 percent last year. This is positive for Brent, given that EMs are the dominant source of demand growth,” said the company.

---

Follow the author on Twitter: @Lyaman_Zeyn

Armenia threatens not only Azerbaijan's energy security - energy minister
Armenia threatens not only Azerbaijan's energy security - energy minister
Natural gas supplied to village of Khulo of Georgian Adjara
Natural gas supplied to village of Khulo of Georgian Adjara
Iran unveils volume of loans issued to Golestan Province
Iran unveils volume of loans issued to Golestan Province
Loading Bars
Latest
Destroyed military equipment of the Armenian army - LIST
Latest situation at front line on Oct. 29
OSCE PA to observe parliamentary elections in Georgia
New COVID-12 cases rise sharply in Kazakhstan, total exceeded 111,000
EU moves to avoid COVID shortages, ease trade
Supply of potential COVID-19 vaccines to start in earnest in April: EU's von der Leyen
Brazil reports 158,456 COVID-19 deaths
Hurricane Zeta makes landfall in Louisiana
Surge in coronavirus cases set to shake Asian markets
Iraq reports 4,043 new COVID-19 cases, 463,951 in total
5.6-magnitude quake hits 56 km WSW of Changuillo, Peru
France and Germany plunge back into lockdown as second COVID-19 wave sweeps Europe
Iran has condemned occupation of Azerbaijani territories from very beginning - Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister
Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have developed rapidly in recent years - Azerbaijani president
If Armenia does not withdraw from rest of occupied territories of its own free will, we will drive them away from there as well - President Ilham Aliyev
UNICEF makes statement on Karabakh conflict calling on to protect children
Iran is next to people and state of Azerbaijan - special representative of Iranian President
Karabakh conflict must be resolved within territorial integrity of Azerbaijan - Special Representative of Iranian President (EXCLUSIVE)
Armenia should know that no provocation can hinder Azerbaijan on its way to victory - MoD
Pakistani ambassador condemns Armenia's attack against civilians in Azerbaijan's Barda
Manpower of Armenian Armed Forces destroyed (VIDEO)
Management of Azerbaijani Emergency Situation Ministry arrive in Barda
Azerbaijani artillerymen destroying Armenian troops' manpower (VIDEO)
Armenian troops firing at Azerbaijani civilian population destroyed with precise fire (VIDEO)
Azerbaijani FM holds telephone conversations with OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs
First Vice-President Mehriban Aliyeva: Such barbaric attacks show that atrocities of Armenians have no limits (PHOTO)
President Ilham Aliyev receives delegation led by Special Envoy of Iranian President (PHOTO)
Azercell stands by people in Barda!
Pakistan’s National Assembly adopts resolution condemning Armenian aggression
Armenian leadership acts as if it lost its mind - Turkish Foreign Ministry
Azerbaijani FM, US deputy secretary of state hold phone talks
Armenia threatens not only Azerbaijan's energy security - energy minister
Freedom of speech suppression by Armenian lobby in France unacceptable - analyst
Azerbaijan provides footage of Armenian troops, military equipment being destroyed (VIDEO)
Ministry of Emergency Situations staff among civilians killed in Azerbaijan’s Barda
Natural gas supplied to village of Khulo of Georgian Adjara
Turkmen FM takes part in second session of India-Central Asia Dialogue
Children among dead, wounded in Azerbaijan’s Barda due to Armenian terror - chief physician
Armenia responsible for death of Azerbaijani civilians - Turkish presidential administration
Armenians think shelling of cities will force Azerbaijan to end war - Russian expert
Iran unveils volume of loans issued to Golestan Province
Azerbaijan destroys Armenian troops (VIDEO)
Azerbaijan expands list of settlements banned with entry-exit due to COVID-19
'Reporters Without Borders' condemns Armenian online attacks against French TV reporter
SOCAR Turkey may evaluate operational partnership for Aliaga port terminal
Shelling of residential areas in Barda once again exposes Armenia's terrorist nature - MFA
Uzbekistan expects GDP to grow in 2021
State budget of Georgian Adjara to up in 2021
Turkey says export of domestic mining products to Georgia down
Iran’s Bahar Azadi gold coin price starts to fall
Missile attack on Barda once again proves terrorist essence of Armenia - Turkish MoD
President Ilham Aliyev: Blood of Barda residents will not remain unavenged, aggressors will be given decent rebuff on battlefield
Tethys reveals 9M2020 production results at Upper Aptian on KBD-02 sites
Turkmenistan remains main gas exporter to China
France raises import of mining industry products from Turkey in September
Azerbaijan extends special quarantine regime
Iran strongly condemns Armenia's missile attack on Azerbaijan's Barda
Iran's budget reliance on oil sale declines
President Ilham Aliyev: Azerbaijani Army liberated 13 villages of Zangilan, Fuzuli, Jabrayil and Gubadli districts
Azerbaijan Deposit Insurance Fund compensating thousands of closed banks' clients
U.S. goods trade deficit shrinks in September
Amount of licenses issued for setting up enterprises in Iran’s Bushehr Province grow
Renewables to play key role in energy sector's dev't, Iranian expert says
Armenian Army, inept as to collaborate with PKK, slaughtering Azerbaijanis - Turkish Ministry of Defense
Georgian GDG Group to open wine factory in 2021
Georgian metallurgical company Rustavi Poladi sees increase in its income
Uzbekistan, Turkey develop military cooperation
Georgia’s Innovation and Technology Agency provides access to finance for innovative project
Uzbekistan, Tajikistan postpone flights resumption date
Servicemen of Azerbaijani Internal Troops urgently sent to Barda
Armenia does not seek to resolve Karabakh conflict peacefully - US military expert
Industrial gas flow obtained at exploration wells in Uzbekistan
Armenian Armed Forces again fire at Azerbaijan’s Tartar by using Grad multiple rocket launchers
Morocco lowers defense products' import from Turkey
Volume of loans issued to manufacturing enterprises in Iran’s Bushehr Province revealed
Azerbaijan drafting laws on gas supply, energy
EAEU countries export large various fabrics to Turkmenistan
Iran enlarges value of exports from Malayer customs
Azerbaijan confirms 340 more COVID-19 recoveries
General Prosecutor's Office gives update on number of victims as result of missile strike on Azerbaijan’s Barda (PHOTO)
If Armenia continues to attack civilians, Azerbaijan to take adequate measures - Assistant to president
Using mosque in Azerbaijan's Zangilan as pigpen is insult to Muslims - Culture Ministry
Romanian expert says digitalization of economy to improve security of EU's energy system
Armenia used cluster munitions to inflict excessive casualties among civilians in Barda - assistant to Azerbaijani president
Kazakhstan's import from Lithuania increases amid COVID-19
Armenian military group annihilated after failed sabotage attempt in Azerbaijan's Zangilan (VIDEO)
Armenian Armed Forces shelling Azerbaijan’s Tartar again
Azerbaijani Armed Forces take revenge for Barda (VIDEO)
By disseminating disinformation, Armenia trying to divert attention from its war crimes
Azerbaijani Ministry of Emergency Situations continues search, rescue operations in Barda
Uzbekistan’s 9M2020 export of textile products up
Cluster bomb attacks are new act of genocide against Azerbaijani people - President's aide
Azerbaijan eyes increasing private investment in renewable energy sector - minister
Latest situation in Azerbaijan’s Barda as result of Armenian terror (VIDEO)
Branch of Russia's Tatneft in Turkmenistan opens tender for installation work
Georgia to build anchovy fishing boat in Turkey
National Bank of Georgia decides to keep refinancing rate unchanged
Assistant to president invites military attaches to visit Azerbaijan’s Barda
Unprecedented number of people apply to participate in Produce in Georgia program
Georgian Natenadze’s Wine Cellar company resumes exports of wines
All news