BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 11. DNV, a renowned advisor in the maritime industry based in Norway, has unveiled a transformative forecast that envisions a pivotal role for hydrogen, whether in its pure form or as derived e-fuels, in the aviation and shipping sectors as part of a comprehensive decarbonization strategy, Trend reports.
In the aviation industry, DNV's projection highlights a significant turning point expected to occur during the 2030s. The primary drivers for this change include considerations of cost and availability. While pure hydrogen and e-fuels are projected to gain prominence, the widespread adoption of e-fuels is contingent upon a substantial increase in renewable power production. Currently, e-fuels face a cost disparity of approximately four to five times higher than fossil kerosene, which needs to be narrowed to achieve widespread adoption.
Within the aviation subsector, e-fuels are expected to outpace pure hydrogen by a ratio of three to one, accounting for a 12% share in the aviation fuel mix. This predominance is mainly attributed to the versatility of e-fuels as drop-in replacements that can be used across all types of flights. Conversely, pure hydrogen faces limitations, primarily due to its lower energy density, making it more suitable for medium-haul flights. Furthermore, the extensive storage requirements of pure hydrogen would necessitate aircraft designs with higher per-passenger costs. Together, pure hydrogen and hydrogen-based e-fuels are projected to constitute roughly 16% of aviation energy usage by 2050, representing a significant shift towards sustainable aviation.
In the maritime industry, hydrogen is expected to play a critical role in decarbonization efforts. Electrification will be a feasible solution for onshore power when ships are berthed and for short-distance sea travel, such as close-to-shore ferry operations. However, the maritime sector's journey toward sustainability is expected to be primarily driven by hydrogen-based fuels, including ammonia and e-fuels, which are anticipated to provide the majority of zero-emission fuels by mid-century.
DNV's comprehensive forecast indicates a substantial growth in the adoption of e-fuels, particularly e-methanol, within the shipping industry. By 2030, the adoption of e-fuels in shipping is expected to reach 480 petajoules (PJ) or 3% of the shipping fuel mix. This is projected to increase to 1,800 PJ (12%) in 2040 and surge to 2,600 PJ (19%) by 2050, signaling a significant transition towards sustainable and decarbonized shipping practices.
DNV's insights offer a glimpse into a future where hydrogen and e-fuels will serve as key catalysts for decarbonization efforts in the aviation and maritime sectors, representing a crucial step towards a more sustainable and environmentally friendly future for these industries.
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