ADB forecasts Azerbaijan's GDP growth by 9.5 percent in 2010

Azerbaijan, Baku, April 20 / Trend N. Ismayilova /

Azerbaijan's GDP will reach 9.5-percent-growth amid increase of oil prices and production volumes in 2010, Asian Development Outlook 2010 reported.

"As a result of increased oil revenue from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan in 2010 transfers will amount to 4,9 billion manat, or $6.1 billion. It will help to increase public investments.

Growth will be ensured at a high level," the report said.

Reduction of tax rates on profits and income tax must contribute to increasing domestic demand. Sufficient liquidity and possible continuation of the expansion of monetary policy will allow commercial banks to expand their lending and reduce interest rates on loans for the private sector.

According to the ADB expectations, the agricultural sector will be further strengthened after different investment projects are completed. Growth will be continued in telecommunications and transport.

Asian Development Bank predicts 9.7-percent-growth in GDP amid incresing oil prices for 2011.

Monetary policy of the country in 2010 pays special attention at inflation. The Central Bank now forecasts inflation in the country at the level of three percent in 2010. However, the rise in prices for goods and food, increase of public investments and oil revenues, along with the current liberal monetary policy, show that the inflation rate of 5,8 percent (and about six percent in 2011) will be an outcome.

The balance of payments is expected to remain strong because of high revenues from oil export. Current account surplus is projected at 23 percent of GDP. Next year it will reduce by 21.7 percent (strong GDP growth will be achieved through import).

Restoration of the world economy will also stimulate non-oil exports.

But the rise in Russia's economy will maintain growth of money transfers. The increase in current account surpluses, transfers from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan eliminates the need for net foreign borrowings. According to forecasts, the external debt will also decrease.

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