Baku, Azerbaijan, Nov.13
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
While gas use comes under pressure from the expansion of renewables and from strong energy efficiency policies in many advanced economies, emerging Asia remains a key source of demand growth to 2040, according to the World Energy Outlook 2018, released by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“In the New Policies Scenario (NPS), natural gas demand in 2040 has been revised up by almost 100 billion cubic meters compared with last year’s outlook. The bulk of the revision is due to China, where gas demand grows rapidly, reflecting strong policy efforts to improve air quality. Developing economies in Asia account for half of the total demand growth through to 2040,” said the report.
IEA expects that the United States will account for 40 percent of total gas production growth to 2025, after which sources of growth become more diverse as US shale gas production flattens and unconventional gas production from other regions picks up.
“Low-cost US production keeps Henry Hub prices relatively low until the mid-2020s, but increasing levels of global LNG trade eventually begin to narrow the gap between regional prices,” said the report.
IEA expects that in the United States, ample availability of gas at affordable prices will foster gas demand growth.
In the NPS, China soon becomes the world’s largest gas-importing country, with net imports approaching the level of the EU by 2040.
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