BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.14
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The oil supply forecast in Eurasia (FSU + other Europe) for 2020 was revised up by 24 tb/d, due to an upward revision by 94 tb/d in 3Q20, which led to a lower contraction by 1.29 mb/d in 2020, Trend reports citing OPEC.
Production in three countries participating in the DoC – Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan– is forecast to decline by 1.09 mb/d, 0.12 mb/d and 0.06 mb/d, respectively in 2020. For 2021, oil production in the region, is forecast to decline by a minor 0.04 mb/d y-o-y to average 13.18 mb/d, of which Russia is forecast to grow by 0.01 mb/d.
Total crude oil exports from Russia and Central Asia continued to move higher in August from June’s low levels. Crude exports from the region rose 3 percent, or 0.3 mb/d, to average 5.8 mb/d in August. However, total crude exports were 1.4 mb/d, or 20 percent lower, than the same month last year, due to the ongoing production adjustments carried out in June.
Crude exports through the Transneft system also moved higher in August, up 9 percent or 0.3 mb/d m-o-m to average 3.4 mb/d. Compared to the same month last year, exports were down 1.0 mb/d or 23 percent. Total shipments from the Black Sea increased 18 tb/d m-o-m, or around 6 percent, to average 322 tb/d in August. In contrast, total Baltic Sea exports jumped 301 tb/d m-o-m to average 0.9 mb/d in August, with shipments from Primorsk up 54 percent to 162 tb/d and Ust-Luga exports rose 50 percent or 139 tb/d.
Meanwhile, shipments via the Druzhba pipeline edged up 3 percent m-o-m to average 927 tb/d in August. Kozmino shipments increased 9 percent m-o-m to average 603 tb/d. Exports to China via the ESPO pipeline averaged 635 tb/d in August, unchanged from the previous month. In the Lukoil system, exports via the Barents Sea declined 17 percent to 82 tb/d in August, while those from the Baltic Sea were unchanged. On other routes, Russia’s Far East exports declined by 1% m-o-m to average 327 tb/d, representing a decline of 6 percent compared to August last year.
Central Asia’s total exports averaged 208 tb/d in August, a 5 percent increase compared to the previous month but a decline of 5 percent y-o-y. Black Sea total exports were broadly unchanged at 1.2 mb/d m-o-m in August, with an increase in the Novorossiysk port terminal (CPC) offsetting a decline at the Supsa port terminal. Total product exports from Russia and Central Asia were broadly steady in August at 2.4 mb/d m-o-m. Declines in fuel oil, naphtha and gasoline offset an increase in VGO and gasoil. Y-o-y, total product exports were 0.6 mb/d, or 20 percent lower, in August.
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