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Oil demand to decrease in every region except two

Oil&Gas Materials 3 October 2018 11:51 (UTC +04:00)

Baku, Azerbaijan, Oct.3

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

At a global level, long-term oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), rising from 97.2 mb/d in 2017 to 111.7 mb/d in 2040, according to OPEC.

“Driven by an expanding middle class, high population growth rates and stronger economic growth potential, oil demand in developing countries is expected to increase by more than 22 mb/d between 2017 and 2040. It rises from 44.4 mb/d in 2017 to 66.6 mb/d in 2040,” said OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2018 (WOO).

The cartel believes that in terms of incremental demand over the forecast period, India is projected to be the country with the fastest demand growth (3.7 percent per annum on average), as well as the largest additional demand (5.8 mb/d).

With this fast demand growth, India will likely pass the 10 mb/d mark sometime towards the end of the forecast period (2017-2040), according to the report.

“Despite this impressive growth, its total demand will still be far below the level of China, the main consumer within the developing countries region. Oil demand in China is forecast to increase by more than 5 mb/d to reach 17.4 mb/d by 2040. This demand level is around 0.4 mb/d lower than projected in last year’s WOO, primarily due to the expected faster penetration of alternative vehicles in the country, with part of its oil demand displaced by other energy sources,” said OPEC.

The cartel expects that oil demand growth will decelerate steadily in every region except two: India and the Middle East and Africa.

“These two regions share common features. Both of them have a young and dynamic population. And it is expected that future economic developments will lift millions out of poverty and help alleviate the challenge of energy access and energy poverty,” said the report.

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