Political crisis in Lebanon not to aggravate: experts
Azerbaijan, Baku, September 10 / Trend U. Sadikhova /
Despite resumption of tensions in Lebanon after the opposition refused from accepting the proposal about the staff of the new government, analysts doubt that it will aggravate the political crisis in Lebanon. It is not ruled out that solving of the governmental crisis in Lebanon depends on the Syrian-Saudi talks.
The risk of a new political crisis occurred after the Lebanese opposition, headed by the pro-Iranian Hezbollah party, refused from accepting Saad al-Hariri's proposal on a staff of the government on Tuesday.
Saad al-Hariri was charged to form the Cabinet of Ministers, about the composition of the government, AFP agency said.
Leader of the 'March 14' majority coalition, al-Hariri, submitted a staff of the government consisting of 30 ministers to the President Michel Suleiman three months after winning at the parliamentary elections.
Members of al-Hariri's coalition get 15 portfolios, the Lebanese opposition - 10. The Lebanese opposition includes Hezbollah, 'Amal' movement and Christian bloc of ex-president Michel Aoun.
The President must allot the rest five seats.
Al-Hariri, leader of the 'March 14' majority coalition, supported by the West and Saudi Arabia, faced with the problem to form the government of national unity because of the position held by the pro-Syrian and pro-Iranian oppositions.
The head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said that proposals on a staff of the new cabinet, voiced by al-Hariri, will aggravate political crisis in Lebanon, AFP said.
Retired General Aoun, supported by the Syrian regime, said in an interview with local radio that he hoped the President Suleiman to refuse from accepting a staff of the cabinet.
According to the Lebanese constitution, the President, Christian-Maronite, must confirm or reject a staff of the cabinet.
However, analysts do not see any new reasons to deepen political crisis in the country continued since 2006 following the opposition's refusal.
So, the situation in Lebanon now is the part of constitutional process, since Prime Minister's proposals, charged to form the Cabinet, must be approved by the president of Lebanon after several consultations, and then confirm the parliament during the voting, an associate fellow of Chatham House, researcher of Lebanese Studies at British University, the center for International Relations, Nadim Shehadi, said.
"Hariri did something within his prerogatives, but got refusal. There will be new consultations," Shehadi said over phone.
The Hizbollah has always been worried about the stands of its resistance, Swedish expert on security, Magnus Ranstorp, said.
Disarmament and Israeli threats remain principal issue for Hezbollah, the Research Director of the Centre for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defence, Ranstorp, told Trend .
However, all these problems have no direct influence on Hezbollah's refusal from accepting the proposed staff of the government, Ranstorp said.
Shehadi said that al-Hariri tried to find a way out of political crisis covering Lebanon.
All Shiite ministers resigned in 2006. It led to political conflict between the pro-Western and pro-Iranian politicians. In May 2008, the conflict turned into armed clashes in Beirut between members of Al-Hariri's movement Al-Mustaqbal and supporters of Hezbollah.
Lebanese parties managed to sign a truce in Doha and agree to form a government of national unity under the mediation of Qatar.
However, experts are unanimous, despite the inter-Lebanese dialogue. Formation of the government in Lebanon ultimately depends on the Syrian-Iranian relations with Saudi Arabia, which is a close ally of the United States.
In July, Riyadh and Damascus have launched the talks to improve relations, as well as to form the government in Lebanon. The talks between two Arab neighbors were unsuccessful though analysts predicted success for Syria in these negotiations.
Shehadi said that the political dead-end in Lebanon is connected with discussions of Syria and Saudi Arabia over the issue.
Analysts refer difficulties with forming a new government to the interests of Riyadh and Damascus in Lebanon.
It is known that Lebanon is a country which has always attracted regional and political forces. Thus, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel and the United States deal with forming of the government and the political decision, but not the Lebanese people, head of the Lebanese Center for Strategic Research, Muhammad Nureddin, told Trend .
The Government in Lebanon did not overcome the crisis due to lack of the agreement among Arab countries concerned in Lebanon, including Saudi Arabia and Syria, but not because there is no agreements between major political forces, including the party of General Aoun, 'Amal', 'Hezbollah' and "Mustaqbal".
"We must wait for agreements between Syria and Iran with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United States to form the government," Nureddin said over phone.
Damascus was constantly suspected of interfering in Lebanese internal affairs after the Syrian troops entered Lebanon after the civil war in 1975.
The Syrian army was forced to leave Lebanon after the government in Damascus has been accused of murdering Saad al-Hariri's father, former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri in February 2005. The international tribunal for Lebanon was established to investigate the murder. It has not provided any information to prove involvement of the Syrian leadership to this murder.