BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 31. The military partnership between Armenia and France entails strategic risks for the South Caucasus, senior research fellow at Carleton University's Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies and formerly a member of the Canadian Institute of Global Affairs Robert M. Cutler said, Trend reports.
He made the remark at an international conference on “France and the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict” in Baku.
“France and Armenia had already established a comprehensive program of defense cooperation by the beginning of this year, including dozens of measures in various areas of the armed forces. In addition to immediate arms deliveries, France's military commitments entail new long-term strategic risks for the South Caucasus. Armenia's growing dependence on French military equipment is a significant deviation from its historical dependence on Russian weapons,” he said.
According to him, if France keeps its nose to the grindstone, it could find itself playing a bigger hand in Armenia's security by 2026-2027. A tighter military partnership could pave the way for solid defense agreements, knitting France more closely into the fabric of Armenia's security interests.
“France is no longer a neutral mediator by 2025. It has become a key player in Armenia's security and development, in stark contrast to its more balanced role in the South Caucasus. In the short term, this increases geopolitical instability. In the medium term, much will depend on how other regional players react. Ahead of Armenia's parliamentary elections in 2026, increased French participation could play into Pashinyan's domestic political maneuverability, giving him political cover to pursue an even more conciliatory policy toward Azerbaijan. However, whether this will lead to the stabilization of the region or further shake it up remains an open question,” Cutler concluded.
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