It is the 9th year when they assure the people in Azerbaijan on the repayment of deposits lost since the Soviet period and the process is in the initial stage now, even not in the form of law. But if the Government of Azerbaijan, which could refuse from this and make the people hopeless, undertook a commitment on repayment of compensation, then it should be eager to resolve the issue as soon as possible.
Let's have a glance at state of the process, which is still actual, in the end of the year. Although AZN 50 mln has been intended in the 2006 State Budget of Azerbaijan for the indexation, it is unknown when this process will commence because still there are unsettled questions. More probably, the law on Indexation of Deposits placed in Savings Bank during the Soviet period until 1 January 1992 will not come out this beyond the statements by MPs, as the document has not entered the parliament yet.
It is required to make an exact number of items of several legislative acts, including the Civil Code. The State Commission for Indexation of Inventory of Deposits of Population to Azerbaijan Department of USSR Savings Bank, which devaluated after 1 January 1992, completed the nominal accounting of the deposits.
In addition, it needs to define the number of depositors from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. In several region (firstly Nagorno-Karabakh), there is true information only for 1 January 1988 and this makes difficult to assess the regional amount and hold indexation, which is held as of 1 January 1992.
Meanwhile, the inventory of depositors held at Kapital Bank revealed some shortages, including false depositor's book. Respectively, a special commission established at the presidential decree, will solve these nuances. Prior to distribution of deposits the commission is not excluded to hold a control re-registration of depositors, which will enable to get rid of the so-called dead' accounts. Their owner either died, or lost their books. However, there is a right of heir, while the lost savings books can restored.
First of all, the older people will have a right to receive the payments. The privileges will also be given to martyrs and low-incomes families.
The Finance Ministry has three variants of conducting indexation, requiring $0,3-0,4 bln, $0,5-0,55 bln and $0,8-1 bln.
The most acceptable scheme of payment was described by MP Ali Alirzyev: those holding no more than превышаюС' 2,000 rubles (roughly 70% of all deposits), will receive $2,000. Those holding deposits in the amount of 2,000 to 5,000 rubles will receive 2 rubles per $1, from 5,000 to 8,000 rules - 4 rubles $1 per, from 8,000 to 10,000 rubles 8 rubles per $1. So, instead of 8,000 Soviet rubles the depositor will get only $1000 and people regard such correlation as unfair. Earlier one could acquire get two good cars at this sum, while today it impossible.
At present, the Commission is working out the indexation mechanism. According to one of them, it is intended to pay $111 for each thousand Soviet rubles. 1,986,000 depositors have been discovered at the time of the inventory held in Kapital Bank. As a result of the indexation, the amount of the deposits has been defined in 6.5 bln Soviet rubles. It means the government prefers the cheap variant of indexation, requiring from $800mln to $1bln. The Chairman of the parliamentary commission on economic policy, Ziyad Samedzade, also confirmed that the amount of indexation might constitute 500-600mln manats (approx $700mln) over 7-8 years.
Producing different schemes of indexation for the people the government de snot provide explanation for it. Indexation of deposits is the relation of the interests paid to depositors to the index of general prices. It is one of important methods to protect the population from inflation, as well as a way for attraction of savings in conditions of economic instability.
The payments in the form of compensation are not ruled out. In compliance presidential decree dated 28 December 2002 (N1006) on Compensation of deposits of the citizens of Kazakhstan Republic the deposits were compensated though their re-registration in the state treasury bills.
So, the people holding savings in the Savings Bank of the former USSR, became state stock-holders. The variant was selected by the National Bank which threatened of the flow of cash money to the economy and possible wave of inflation. The securities were emitted for term of 1, 2 and 3 years and were issued in non-documentary form with he net price of 1 tenge per bill. Within a year or as maximum three the depositor as to receive not only funds but also the investment revenues. The profitability ratio of the bills for securities with the clearing off term of a year was determined as 6.78%. The profitability of 2-year bills was determined as 8.19% per annum. The bills can be sold at the prices which is to depend on the market.
Amongst the CIS countries, the indexation has been completed in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus. Presently the indexation of the deposits is being carried out in Russia, Ukraine and Moldavia. It happens differently in each country. Thus, 1 Soviet ruble is accepted as $0,0033 in Russia, Kazakhstan $0,006, Ukraine $0,009, $0,33 Belarus, $0,20 Moldavia, $0,024 Kazakhstan.
During the meeting in Moscow, the Prime Ministers of newly independent state agreed upon resolution of problems with deposits at savings banks through own force. However, in this case every country delayed the indexation process to more favorable period.
Perhaps, 2007 will become a favorable period for Azerbaijan to settle finally the problems with depositors. The public budget incomes are growing thanks to high oil prices. The revenues of the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan and the Reserve Fund also increase. In accordance with the forecasts, the production of the GDP in 2007 was projected I the amount of 22.2bln manats amid growth pace of 22.7% against the 18.1bln manats expected in 2006 (32%). The growth pace of the GDP is linked with the development of private sector. As to forecasts, the special weight of the private sector in the GDP is expected to be 79% in 2007, whereas in 2006 it is planned to comprise 77%. Real rise in the industry is predicted at 41.8% in 2007 (55.2% - in 2006) and constitute 13,246bln manats, in agriculture 1,576bln manats with a rise of 10% (9.5% in 2006). The volume of money services rendered to population this year comprise 1.2bln manats with a growth of 21.1% in 2006 and 1.5bln manats with a rise of 21.2% in 2007.
So, the deposits are hopeful. The logic of the Government of Azerbaijan is simple: Azerbaijan should study the way of attracting capital from its major investors people, but who will believe in the government unless the smallest part of the debt is repaid?