Baku, Azerbaijan, May 22
By Azer Ahmadbayli – Trend:
Why are the Americans and other foreigners fleeing from Iraq? What is being expected there, if not only the US non-critical personnel of the American Embassy were told to promptly leave the country, but also the ExxonMobil staff, the Bahrainis, military instructors from Netherlands, Germany, etc.?
Iran and the US are preparing for the "battle" for Iraq. The one who wins it, will win the overall confrontation. This is clearly seen from statements made by both sides.
A couple of weeks ago, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) al-Quds Force, General Qassem Soleimani, was reported to have told Iraqi Shia militias loyal to him to "prepare for proxy war", Alaraby reported.
In turn, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Iraqi leaders that if they are not going to stand with the US against Iran, then they should stand aside, AP reported.
The latest news from Iraq indicates that the US is strengthening its military presence in Iraq. Recently, American troops have launched expansion of airport at the "al-Assad" air base in the Western province of Anbar.
Iran is very nervous about the US reinforcement, as losing its power in Iraq, Iran risks losing much of what it has managed to acquire in the entire region during the Arab spring.
In fact, Iraq is the best place to press the US indirectly, by using proxies. It is necessary to remind in this regard that Iraqi Hashd al-Shaabi Shia militia is formally considered a part of the Iraqi military forces.
Furthermore, Iraqi leadership’s unity and its abilities to suppress activities of Iran-backed militias and to provide safety of the US military, are also under a big question.
Maybe, realizing that, Iraqi influential Shia cleric and head of the Sairoon Alliance, Muqtada Al-Sadr, warned that making Iraq a battleground for the Iranian-US conflict will be the end of Iraq.
“Any party that would drag Iraq into the war and turn it into a scene for conflict will be an enemy to the Iraqi people,” he added.
What comes next, may very well become the next storyline of the “Homeland” TV series.
Someone like Dar Adal, one of the movie’s protagonists and CIA black operations director, for whom the US supremacy is much higher than a dozen of human lives, arranges clandestine operation to strike (by hands of Hashd al-Shaabi militants or somebody else) against the US military base with a number of casualties among the US soldiers.
It is one thing to bomb a Saudi oil pipeline or vessels in an Emirati port, but it is quite another thing to kill American soldiers in Iraq.
The US President gives the order to strike back at the militants and their Headquarters, as well as on the territory of Iran. Sadr and his numerous supporters declare Iran and a part of its local Iraqi blind adherents the enemies of Iraq. A chance to undermine Iran's influence in Iraq is increasing dramatically. The so-called Iran’s land bridge across Iraq to Syria, Lebanon and the Eastern Mediterranean is being destroyed. Iran has lost. The prize is “worth the cost.”
The scenario can be written in a less cynical manner for the US reputation. Not the CIA, but a third party, such as the Saudi Arabian or Israeli intelligence, going behind back of the US, initiate the attack.
As everybody remembers, one shell has already fell in the "Green zone" of Baghdad, from "nowhere".
If Iran really does not want a war, then Qassem Soleimani should instruct his proxies in Iraq to keep away from the US bases as far as possible.
In reality, no one or almost no one wants a war. And yet, all this looks like an old pile of firewood that is ready to burst into flames. All it takes is just a match.